Global Carbon Budget 2017

Global Carbon Budget 2017. Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Manning, A. C., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Boden, T. A., Tans, P. P., Andrews, O. D., Arora, V. K., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Becker, M., Betts, R. A., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Cosca, C. E., Cross, J., Currie, K., Gasser, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Haverd, V., Houghton, R. A., Hunt, C. W., Hurtt, G., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kautz, M., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lima, I., Lombardozzi, D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S., Nojiri, Y., Pad́\in, X. Antoni, Peregon, A., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Reimer, J., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Stocker, B. D., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx , I. T., van der Werf , G. R., van Heuven , S., Viovy, N., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Watson, A. J., Wiltshire, A. J., Zaehle, S., & Zhu, D. Earth System Science Data Discussions, November, 2017.
doi abstract bibtex

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of our imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as $\pm$1$\sigma$. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4\,$\pm$\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1, ELUC 1.3\,$\pm$\,0.7\,GtC\,yr-1, GATM 4.7\,$\pm$\,0.1\,GtC\,yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4\,$\pm$\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1, and SLAND 3.0\,$\pm$\,0.8\,GtC\,yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6\,GtC\,yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9\,$\pm$\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3\,$\pm$\,0.7\,GtC\,yr-1, GATM was 6.1\,$\pm$\,0.2\,GtC\,yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6\,$\pm$\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1 and SLAND was 2.7\,$\pm$\,1.0\,GtC\,yr-1, with a small BIM of -0.3\,GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the higher fossil emissions and smaller SLAND for that year consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8\,$\pm$\,0.1\,ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0\,% (range of 0.8\,% to 3.0\,%) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of Gross Domestic Product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. For 2017, initial data indicate an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of around 5.3\,GtC (2.5\,ppm), attributed to a combination of increasing emissions and receding El Niño conditions. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016; 2015b; 2015a; 2014; 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017.

@article{lequereGlobalCarbonBudget2017,
  title = {Global Carbon Budget 2017},
  author = {Le Qu{\'e}r{\'e}, Corinne and Andrew, Robbie M. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Sitch, Stephen and Pongratz, Julia and Manning, Andrew C. and Korsbakken, Jan I. and Peters, Glen P. and Canadell, Josep G. and Jackson, Robert B. and Boden, Thomas A. and Tans, Pieter P. and Andrews, Oliver D. and Arora, Vivek K. and Bakker, Dorothee C. E. and Barbero, Leticia and Becker, Meike and Betts, Richard A. and Bopp, Laurent and Chevallier, Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric and Chini, Louise P. and Ciais, Philippe and Cosca, Catherine E. and Cross, Jessica and Currie, Kim and Gasser, Thomas and Harris, Ian and Hauck, Judith and Haverd, Vanessa and Houghton, Richard A. and Hunt, Christopher W. and Hurtt, George and Ilyina, Tatiana and Jain, Atul K. and Kato, Etsushi and Kautz, Markus and Keeling, Ralph F. and Klein Goldewijk, Kees and K{\"o}rtzinger, Arne and Landsch{\"u}tzer, Peter and Lef{\`e}vre, Nathalie and Lenton, Andrew and Lienert, Sebastian and Lima, Ivan and Lombardozzi, Danica and Metzl, Nicolas and Millero, Frank and Monteiro, Pedro M. S. and Munro, David R. and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro and Nojiri, Yukihiro and Pa{\'d}{\i}n, X. Antoni and Peregon, Anna and Pfeil, Benjamin and Pierrot, Denis and Poulter, Benjamin and Rehder, Gregor and Reimer, Janet and R{\"o}denbeck, Christian and Schwinger, J{\"o}rg and S{\'e}f{\'e}rian, Roland and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Tian, Hanqin and Tilbrook, Bronte and {van der Laan-Luijkx}, Ingrid T. and {van der Werf}, Guido R. and {van Heuven}, Steven and Viovy, Nicolas and Vuichard, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Watson, Andrew J. and Wiltshire, Andrew J. and Zaehle, S{\"o}nke and Zhu, Dan},
  year = {2017},
  month = nov,
  pages = {1--79},
  issn = {1866-3591},
  doi = {10.5194/essd-2017-123},
  abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of our imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as {$\pm$}1{$\sigma$}. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4\,{$\pm$}\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1, ELUC 1.3\,{$\pm$}\,0.7\,GtC\,yr-1, GATM 4.7\,{$\pm$}\,0.1\,GtC\,yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4\,{$\pm$}\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1, and SLAND 3.0\,{$\pm$}\,0.8\,GtC\,yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6\,GtC\,yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9\,{$\pm$}\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3\,{$\pm$}\,0.7\,GtC\,yr-1, GATM was 6.1\,{$\pm$}\,0.2\,GtC\,yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6\,{$\pm$}\,0.5\,GtC\,yr-1 and SLAND was 2.7\,{$\pm$}\,1.0\,GtC\,yr-1, with a small BIM of -0.3\,GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the higher fossil emissions and smaller SLAND for that year consistent with El Ni\~no conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8\,{$\pm$}\,0.1\,ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0\,\% (range of 0.8\,\% to 3.0\,\%) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of Gross Domestic Product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. For 2017, initial data indicate an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of around 5.3\,GtC (2.5\,ppm), attributed to a combination of increasing emissions and receding El Ni\~no conditions. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu\'er\'e et al., 2016; 2015b; 2015a; 2014; 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017.},
  journal = {Earth System Science Data Discussions},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14477849,~to-add-doi-URL,atmosphere,carbon-cycle,carbon-emissions,climate-change,ghg,global-scale,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14477849}
}

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