The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science. Lewandowsky, S., Risbey, J. S., & Oreskes, N. American Meteorological Society, 97(5):723–733, June, 2016. ![The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.
@article{lewandowsky_pause_2016,
title = {The pause in global warming: {Turning} a routine fluctuation into a problem for science},
volume = {97},
issn = {0003-0007},
shorttitle = {The pause in global warming},
url = {https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/en/publications/the-pause-in-global-warming(9a81f4b9-c049-411b-a8fd-11acfbbc2211).html},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1},
abstract = {There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.},
language = {English},
number = {5},
urldate = {2018-04-30},
journal = {American Meteorological Society},
author = {Lewandowsky, Stephan and Risbey, James S. and Oreskes, Naomi},
month = jun,
year = {2016},
keywords = {5 Ignorance and manufactured doubt, PRINTED (Fonds papier)},
pages = {723--733},
}
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