The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science. Lewandowsky, S., Risbey, J. S., & Oreskes, N. American Meteorological Society, 97(5):723–733, June, 2016. ![The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.
@article{lewandowsky_pause_2016,
title = {The pause in global warming: {Turning} a routine fluctuation into a problem for science},
volume = {97},
issn = {0003-0007},
shorttitle = {The pause in global warming},
url = {https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/en/publications/the-pause-in-global-warming(9a81f4b9-c049-411b-a8fd-11acfbbc2211).html},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1},
abstract = {There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.},
language = {English},
number = {5},
urldate = {2018-04-30},
journal = {American Meteorological Society},
author = {Lewandowsky, Stephan and Risbey, James S. and Oreskes, Naomi},
month = jun,
year = {2016},
keywords = {5 Ignorance and manufactured doubt, PRINTED (Fonds papier)},
pages = {723--733},
}
Downloads: 0
{"_id":"PW32N9YYzGEyff9Yo","bibbaseid":"lewandowsky-risbey-oreskes-thepauseinglobalwarmingturningaroutinefluctuationintoaproblemforscience-2016","authorIDs":[],"author_short":["Lewandowsky, S.","Risbey, J. S.","Oreskes, N."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science","volume":"97","issn":"0003-0007","shorttitle":"The pause in global warming","url":"https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/en/publications/the-pause-in-global-warming(9a81f4b9-c049-411b-a8fd-11acfbbc2211).html","doi":"10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1","abstract":"There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.","language":"English","number":"5","urldate":"2018-04-30","journal":"American Meteorological Society","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Lewandowsky"],"firstnames":["Stephan"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Risbey"],"firstnames":["James","S."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Oreskes"],"firstnames":["Naomi"],"suffixes":[]}],"month":"June","year":"2016","keywords":"5 Ignorance and manufactured doubt, PRINTED (Fonds papier)","pages":"723–733","bibtex":"@article{lewandowsky_pause_2016,\n\ttitle = {The pause in global warming: {Turning} a routine fluctuation into a problem for science},\n\tvolume = {97},\n\tissn = {0003-0007},\n\tshorttitle = {The pause in global warming},\n\turl = {https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/en/publications/the-pause-in-global-warming(9a81f4b9-c049-411b-a8fd-11acfbbc2211).html},\n\tdoi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1},\n\tabstract = {There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.},\n\tlanguage = {English},\n\tnumber = {5},\n\turldate = {2018-04-30},\n\tjournal = {American Meteorological Society},\n\tauthor = {Lewandowsky, Stephan and Risbey, James S. and Oreskes, Naomi},\n\tmonth = jun,\n\tyear = {2016},\n\tkeywords = {5 Ignorance and manufactured doubt, PRINTED (Fonds papier)},\n\tpages = {723--733},\n}\n\n","author_short":["Lewandowsky, S.","Risbey, J. S.","Oreskes, N."],"key":"lewandowsky_pause_2016","id":"lewandowsky_pause_2016","bibbaseid":"lewandowsky-risbey-oreskes-thepauseinglobalwarmingturningaroutinefluctuationintoaproblemforscience-2016","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/en/publications/the-pause-in-global-warming(9a81f4b9-c049-411b-a8fd-11acfbbc2211).html"},"keyword":["5 Ignorance and manufactured doubt","PRINTED (Fonds papier)"],"metadata":{"authorlinks":{}},"downloads":0},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"http://bibbase.org/zotero-group/science_et_ignorance/1340424","creationDate":"2020-03-19T19:43:45.367Z","downloads":0,"keywords":["5 ignorance and manufactured doubt","printed (fonds papier)"],"search_terms":["pause","global","warming","turning","routine","fluctuation","problem","science","lewandowsky","risbey","oreskes"],"title":"The pause in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science","year":2016,"dataSources":["zX4acseCDM6D58AW7","NTvuMntpta5z9CAbT"]}