The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions. Lilie, E., Rose, J. C., Lisanti, M., Garcia, A. M., Torrey, P., Kollmann, K. E., Li, J., Mostow, O., Wang, B. Y., O'Neil, S., Shen, X., Brooks, A. M., Farahi, A., Kallivayalil, N., Necib, L., Pace, A. B., & Vogelsberger, M. 2025. Version Number: 1
The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.
@misc{lilie_dreams_2025,
	title = {The {DREAMS} {Project}: {Disentangling} the {Impact} of {Halo}-to-{Halo} {Variance} and {Baryonic} {Feedback} on {Milky} {Way} {Dark} {Matter} {Speed} {Distributions}},
	copyright = {Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International},
	shorttitle = {The {DREAMS} {Project}},
	url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04157},
	doi = {10.48550/ARXIV.2512.04157},
	abstract = {Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2025-12-18},
	publisher = {arXiv},
	author = {Lilie, Ethan and Rose, Jonah C. and Lisanti, Mariangela and Garcia, Alex M. and Torrey, Paul and Kollmann, Kassidy E. and Li, Jiaxuan and Mostow, Olivia and Wang, Bonny Y. and O'Neil, Stephanie and Shen, Xuejian and Brooks, Alyson M. and Farahi, Arya and Kallivayalil, Nitya and Necib, Lina and Pace, Andrew B. and Vogelsberger, Mark},
	year = {2025},
	note = {Version Number: 1},
	keywords = {Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA), Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.CO), FOS: Physical sciences, High Energy Physics - Phenomenology (hep-ph)},
}
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