Modern sea-level rise breaks 4,000-year stability in southeastern China. Lin, Y., Kopp, R. E., Xiong, H., Hibbert, F. D., Zheng, Z., Yu, F., Kumar, P., Dangendorf, S., Yi, H., & Zhang, Y. Nature, October, 2025. Publisher: Nature Publishing Group![Modern sea-level rise breaks 4,000-year stability in southeastern China [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Quantifying physical mechanisms driving sea-level change—including global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional-to-local components (that is, sea-level budget)—is essential for reliable future projections and effective coastal management1,2. Although previous research has attempted to resolve China’s sea-level budget from the 1950s3,4, these studies capture short timescales and lack the long-term context necessary to fully assess modern sea-level rise in southeastern China5—one of the world’s most densely populated regions with immense socioeconomic importance6. Here we show that GMSL followed three distinct stages from 11,700 years before present (BP) to the modern day: (1) rapid early Holocene rise driven by the deglacial melt of land ice; (2) 4,000 years of stability from around 4200 BP to the mid-nineteenth century when regional processes dominated sea-level change; and (3) accelerating rise from the mid-nineteenth century. Our results arise from spatiotemporal hierarchical modelling of geological sea-level proxies and tide gauge data to produce site-specific sea-level budget estimates with uncertainty quantification. It is extremely likely (P ≥ 0.95) that the GMSL rise rate since 1900 (1.51 ± 0.16 mm year−1, 1σ) has exceeded any century over at least the past four millennia. Moreover, our analysis indicates that at least 94% of rapid modern urban subsidence is attributable to anthropogenic activities, with localized subsidence rates often exceeding GMSL rise. Such concurrent acceleration of global sea-level rise and rapid localized subsidence has not been observed in our Holocene geological record.
@article{lin_modern_2025,
title = {Modern sea-level rise breaks 4,000-year stability in southeastern {China}},
copyright = {2025 Crown},
issn = {1476-4687},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09600-z},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09600-z},
abstract = {Quantifying physical mechanisms driving sea-level change—including global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional-to-local components (that is, sea-level budget)—is essential for reliable future projections and effective coastal management1,2. Although previous research has attempted to resolve China’s sea-level budget from the 1950s3,4, these studies capture short timescales and lack the long-term context necessary to fully assess modern sea-level rise in southeastern China5—one of the world’s most densely populated regions with immense socioeconomic importance6. Here we show that GMSL followed three distinct stages from 11,700 years before present (BP) to the modern day: (1) rapid early Holocene rise driven by the deglacial melt of land ice; (2) 4,000 years of stability from around 4200 BP to the mid-nineteenth century when regional processes dominated sea-level change; and (3) accelerating rise from the mid-nineteenth century. Our results arise from spatiotemporal hierarchical modelling of geological sea-level proxies and tide gauge data to produce site-specific sea-level budget estimates with uncertainty quantification. It is extremely likely (P ≥ 0.95) that the GMSL rise rate since 1900 (1.51 ± 0.16 mm year−1, 1σ) has exceeded any century over at least the past four millennia. Moreover, our analysis indicates that at least 94\% of rapid modern urban subsidence is attributable to anthropogenic activities, with localized subsidence rates often exceeding GMSL rise. Such concurrent acceleration of global sea-level rise and rapid localized subsidence has not been observed in our Holocene geological record.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2025-10-20},
journal = {Nature},
author = {Lin, Yucheng and Kopp, Robert E. and Xiong, Haixian and Hibbert, Fiona D. and Zheng, Zhuo and Yu, Fengling and Kumar, Praveen and Dangendorf, Sönke and Yi, Hailin and Zhang, Yaze},
month = oct,
year = {2025},
note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
keywords = {Attribution, Climate and Earth system modelling, Climate-change impacts},
pages = {1--9},
}
Downloads: 0
{"_id":"rpqwWpQHH2EbKrLQy","bibbaseid":"lin-kopp-xiong-hibbert-zheng-yu-kumar-dangendorf-etal-modernsealevelrisebreaks4000yearstabilityinsoutheasternchina-2025","author_short":["Lin, Y.","Kopp, R. E.","Xiong, H.","Hibbert, F. D.","Zheng, Z.","Yu, F.","Kumar, P.","Dangendorf, S.","Yi, H.","Zhang, Y."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Modern sea-level rise breaks 4,000-year stability in southeastern China","copyright":"2025 Crown","issn":"1476-4687","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09600-z","doi":"10.1038/s41586-025-09600-z","abstract":"Quantifying physical mechanisms driving sea-level change—including global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional-to-local components (that is, sea-level budget)—is essential for reliable future projections and effective coastal management1,2. Although previous research has attempted to resolve China’s sea-level budget from the 1950s3,4, these studies capture short timescales and lack the long-term context necessary to fully assess modern sea-level rise in southeastern China5—one of the world’s most densely populated regions with immense socioeconomic importance6. Here we show that GMSL followed three distinct stages from 11,700 years before present (BP) to the modern day: (1) rapid early Holocene rise driven by the deglacial melt of land ice; (2) 4,000 years of stability from around 4200 BP to the mid-nineteenth century when regional processes dominated sea-level change; and (3) accelerating rise from the mid-nineteenth century. Our results arise from spatiotemporal hierarchical modelling of geological sea-level proxies and tide gauge data to produce site-specific sea-level budget estimates with uncertainty quantification. It is extremely likely (P ≥ 0.95) that the GMSL rise rate since 1900 (1.51 ± 0.16 mm year−1, 1σ) has exceeded any century over at least the past four millennia. Moreover, our analysis indicates that at least 94% of rapid modern urban subsidence is attributable to anthropogenic activities, with localized subsidence rates often exceeding GMSL rise. Such concurrent acceleration of global sea-level rise and rapid localized subsidence has not been observed in our Holocene geological record.","language":"en","urldate":"2025-10-20","journal":"Nature","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Lin"],"firstnames":["Yucheng"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Kopp"],"firstnames":["Robert","E."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Xiong"],"firstnames":["Haixian"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Hibbert"],"firstnames":["Fiona","D."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Zheng"],"firstnames":["Zhuo"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Yu"],"firstnames":["Fengling"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Kumar"],"firstnames":["Praveen"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Dangendorf"],"firstnames":["Sönke"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Yi"],"firstnames":["Hailin"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Zhang"],"firstnames":["Yaze"],"suffixes":[]}],"month":"October","year":"2025","note":"Publisher: Nature Publishing Group","keywords":"Attribution, Climate and Earth system modelling, Climate-change impacts","pages":"1–9","bibtex":"@article{lin_modern_2025,\n\ttitle = {Modern sea-level rise breaks 4,000-year stability in southeastern {China}},\n\tcopyright = {2025 Crown},\n\tissn = {1476-4687},\n\turl = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09600-z},\n\tdoi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09600-z},\n\tabstract = {Quantifying physical mechanisms driving sea-level change—including global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional-to-local components (that is, sea-level budget)—is essential for reliable future projections and effective coastal management1,2. Although previous research has attempted to resolve China’s sea-level budget from the 1950s3,4, these studies capture short timescales and lack the long-term context necessary to fully assess modern sea-level rise in southeastern China5—one of the world’s most densely populated regions with immense socioeconomic importance6. Here we show that GMSL followed three distinct stages from 11,700 years before present (BP) to the modern day: (1) rapid early Holocene rise driven by the deglacial melt of land ice; (2) 4,000 years of stability from around 4200 BP to the mid-nineteenth century when regional processes dominated sea-level change; and (3) accelerating rise from the mid-nineteenth century. Our results arise from spatiotemporal hierarchical modelling of geological sea-level proxies and tide gauge data to produce site-specific sea-level budget estimates with uncertainty quantification. It is extremely likely (P ≥ 0.95) that the GMSL rise rate since 1900 (1.51 ± 0.16 mm year−1, 1σ) has exceeded any century over at least the past four millennia. Moreover, our analysis indicates that at least 94\\% of rapid modern urban subsidence is attributable to anthropogenic activities, with localized subsidence rates often exceeding GMSL rise. Such concurrent acceleration of global sea-level rise and rapid localized subsidence has not been observed in our Holocene geological record.},\n\tlanguage = {en},\n\turldate = {2025-10-20},\n\tjournal = {Nature},\n\tauthor = {Lin, Yucheng and Kopp, Robert E. and Xiong, Haixian and Hibbert, Fiona D. and Zheng, Zhuo and Yu, Fengling and Kumar, Praveen and Dangendorf, Sönke and Yi, Hailin and Zhang, Yaze},\n\tmonth = oct,\n\tyear = {2025},\n\tnote = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},\n\tkeywords = {Attribution, Climate and Earth system modelling, Climate-change impacts},\n\tpages = {1--9},\n}\n\n","author_short":["Lin, Y.","Kopp, R. E.","Xiong, H.","Hibbert, F. D.","Zheng, Z.","Yu, F.","Kumar, P.","Dangendorf, S.","Yi, H.","Zhang, Y."],"key":"lin_modern_2025","id":"lin_modern_2025","bibbaseid":"lin-kopp-xiong-hibbert-zheng-yu-kumar-dangendorf-etal-modernsealevelrisebreaks4000yearstabilityinsoutheasternchina-2025","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09600-z"},"keyword":["Attribution","Climate and Earth system modelling","Climate-change impacts"],"metadata":{"authorlinks":{}}},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"https://api.zotero.org/users/3220083/collections/G3U77W5V/items?key=WJ6H4dw8qlcjdEFogsBjzR6I&format=bibtex&limit=100","dataSources":["kug8GxfvyY8qkyJYk","mDQdeAtYaosbKAeRE","w7hu7cGLrEMqaoQ3B"],"keywords":["attribution","climate and earth system modelling","climate-change impacts"],"search_terms":["modern","sea","level","rise","breaks","000","year","stability","southeastern","china","lin","kopp","xiong","hibbert","zheng","yu","kumar","dangendorf","yi","zhang"],"title":"Modern sea-level rise breaks 4,000-year stability in southeastern China","year":2025}