@article{lopezEndSocialConfinement2020,
  title = {The End of Social Confinement and {{COVID}}-19 Re-Emergence Risk},
  author = {López, Leonardo and Rodó, Xavier},
  date = {2020},
  journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
  doi = {10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8},
  urldate = {2020-06-23},
  abstract = {The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying effects due to potential loss of acquired immunity, people’s increasing awareness of social distancing and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for at least 60 days to prevent epidemic growth, as well as a potentially larger second wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases occurring within months. The best-case scenario should also gradually incorporate workers in a daily proportion at most 50\% higher than during the confinement period. We show that decaying immunity and particularly awareness and behaviour have 99\% significant effects on both the current wave of infection and on preventing COVID-19 re-emergence. Social distancing and individual non-pharmaceutical interventions could potentially remove the need for lockdowns.},
  keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-AZULFZUS,aerosol,human-health,long-range-transport,mitigation,pandemic,short-term-vs-long-term,virus}
}

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