Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations. Maio Mackay, M. & Metcalfe, M. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 69(3):221-232, 2002. ![Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Website abstract bibtex This paper argues for the development of more explicit forecasting methodologies that use the pragmatics of combining methods and the philosophical base of multiple perspectives. The increasingly common "wicked" problem of forecasting demand for discontinuous innovations (DI) at the concept testing stage of new product development is used to ground the discussion. We look to the interpretivist group-based inquiry methodologies in the management and information systems literature, and coupled this with discussions with forecasting managers, to provide evidence to support the adoption of this approach. Relativism is briefly critiqued and the accuracy of the combining methods forecasting literature reviewed. It appears that the managers interviewed could benefit from an explicit understanding of the multiple perspective approach, as they already appeared to have appreciated the need for a broader based approach than traditional forecasting techniques. It is therefore hoped that as a result of this paper, more managers involved with the "wicked" problem of innovative product forecasting will recognise the need to adopt a more explicit multiple perspective inquiry methodology in their efforts to combine forecasting methods. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
@article{
title = {Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations},
type = {article},
year = {2002},
keywords = {Discontinuous innovation,Forecasting,Multiple methods,Multiple perspectives},
pages = {221-232},
volume = {69},
websites = {http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0036543489&partnerID=40&md5=83081d6dba1989d81f65aab6d6e7f66c},
city = {Affiliation: School of Marketing, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia},
id = {df22a72a-ad97-3be1-8e28-5e40fd7e3a3e},
created = {2016-08-21T22:17:42.000Z},
file_attached = {false},
profile_id = {217ced55-4c79-38dc-838b-4b5ea8df5597},
group_id = {408d37d9-5f1b-3398-a9f5-5c1a487116d4},
last_modified = {2017-03-14T09:54:45.334Z},
read = {false},
starred = {false},
authored = {false},
confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
source_type = {JOUR},
notes = {Cited By (since 1996):5},
folder_uuids = {87297ef5-9948-4783-9831-a07884a9cda9},
private_publication = {false},
abstract = {This paper argues for the development of more explicit forecasting methodologies that use the pragmatics of combining methods and the philosophical base of multiple perspectives. The increasingly common "wicked" problem of forecasting demand for discontinuous innovations (DI) at the concept testing stage of new product development is used to ground the discussion. We look to the interpretivist group-based inquiry methodologies in the management and information systems literature, and coupled this with discussions with forecasting managers, to provide evidence to support the adoption of this approach. Relativism is briefly critiqued and the accuracy of the combining methods forecasting literature reviewed. It appears that the managers interviewed could benefit from an explicit understanding of the multiple perspective approach, as they already appeared to have appreciated the need for a broader based approach than traditional forecasting techniques. It is therefore hoped that as a result of this paper, more managers involved with the "wicked" problem of innovative product forecasting will recognise the need to adopt a more explicit multiple perspective inquiry methodology in their efforts to combine forecasting methods. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Maio Mackay, M and Metcalfe, M},
journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},
number = {3}
}
Downloads: 0
{"_id":"yg45ivbAXMfy4eXRy","bibbaseid":"maiomackay-metcalfe-multiplemethodforecastsfordiscontinuousinnovations-2002","downloads":0,"creationDate":"2017-11-23T19:05:20.229Z","title":"Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations","author_short":["Maio Mackay, M.","Metcalfe, M."],"year":2002,"bibtype":"article","biburl":null,"bibdata":{"title":"Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations","type":"article","year":"2002","keywords":"Discontinuous innovation,Forecasting,Multiple methods,Multiple perspectives","pages":"221-232","volume":"69","websites":"http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0036543489&partnerID=40&md5=83081d6dba1989d81f65aab6d6e7f66c","city":"Affiliation: School of Marketing, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia","id":"df22a72a-ad97-3be1-8e28-5e40fd7e3a3e","created":"2016-08-21T22:17:42.000Z","file_attached":false,"profile_id":"217ced55-4c79-38dc-838b-4b5ea8df5597","group_id":"408d37d9-5f1b-3398-a9f5-5c1a487116d4","last_modified":"2017-03-14T09:54:45.334Z","read":false,"starred":false,"authored":false,"confirmed":"true","hidden":false,"source_type":"JOUR","notes":"Cited By (since 1996):5","folder_uuids":"87297ef5-9948-4783-9831-a07884a9cda9","private_publication":false,"abstract":"This paper argues for the development of more explicit forecasting methodologies that use the pragmatics of combining methods and the philosophical base of multiple perspectives. The increasingly common \"wicked\" problem of forecasting demand for discontinuous innovations (DI) at the concept testing stage of new product development is used to ground the discussion. We look to the interpretivist group-based inquiry methodologies in the management and information systems literature, and coupled this with discussions with forecasting managers, to provide evidence to support the adoption of this approach. Relativism is briefly critiqued and the accuracy of the combining methods forecasting literature reviewed. It appears that the managers interviewed could benefit from an explicit understanding of the multiple perspective approach, as they already appeared to have appreciated the need for a broader based approach than traditional forecasting techniques. It is therefore hoped that as a result of this paper, more managers involved with the \"wicked\" problem of innovative product forecasting will recognise the need to adopt a more explicit multiple perspective inquiry methodology in their efforts to combine forecasting methods. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.","bibtype":"article","author":"Maio Mackay, M and Metcalfe, M","journal":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","number":"3","bibtex":"@article{\n title = {Multiple method forecasts for discontinuous innovations},\n type = {article},\n year = {2002},\n keywords = {Discontinuous innovation,Forecasting,Multiple methods,Multiple perspectives},\n pages = {221-232},\n volume = {69},\n websites = {http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0036543489&partnerID=40&md5=83081d6dba1989d81f65aab6d6e7f66c},\n city = {Affiliation: School of Marketing, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia},\n id = {df22a72a-ad97-3be1-8e28-5e40fd7e3a3e},\n created = {2016-08-21T22:17:42.000Z},\n file_attached = {false},\n profile_id = {217ced55-4c79-38dc-838b-4b5ea8df5597},\n group_id = {408d37d9-5f1b-3398-a9f5-5c1a487116d4},\n last_modified = {2017-03-14T09:54:45.334Z},\n read = {false},\n starred = {false},\n authored = {false},\n confirmed = {true},\n hidden = {false},\n source_type = {JOUR},\n notes = {Cited By (since 1996):5},\n folder_uuids = {87297ef5-9948-4783-9831-a07884a9cda9},\n private_publication = {false},\n abstract = {This paper argues for the development of more explicit forecasting methodologies that use the pragmatics of combining methods and the philosophical base of multiple perspectives. The increasingly common \"wicked\" problem of forecasting demand for discontinuous innovations (DI) at the concept testing stage of new product development is used to ground the discussion. We look to the interpretivist group-based inquiry methodologies in the management and information systems literature, and coupled this with discussions with forecasting managers, to provide evidence to support the adoption of this approach. Relativism is briefly critiqued and the accuracy of the combining methods forecasting literature reviewed. It appears that the managers interviewed could benefit from an explicit understanding of the multiple perspective approach, as they already appeared to have appreciated the need for a broader based approach than traditional forecasting techniques. It is therefore hoped that as a result of this paper, more managers involved with the \"wicked\" problem of innovative product forecasting will recognise the need to adopt a more explicit multiple perspective inquiry methodology in their efforts to combine forecasting methods. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.},\n bibtype = {article},\n author = {Maio Mackay, M and Metcalfe, M},\n journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},\n number = {3}\n}","author_short":["Maio Mackay, M.","Metcalfe, M."],"urls":{"Website":"http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0036543489&partnerID=40&md5=83081d6dba1989d81f65aab6d6e7f66c"},"bibbaseid":"maiomackay-metcalfe-multiplemethodforecastsfordiscontinuousinnovations-2002","role":"author","keyword":["Discontinuous innovation","Forecasting","Multiple methods","Multiple perspectives"],"downloads":0},"search_terms":["multiple","method","forecasts","discontinuous","innovations","maio mackay","metcalfe"],"keywords":["discontinuous innovation","forecasting","multiple methods","multiple perspectives"],"authorIDs":[]}