@Article{Mandel2014,
author = {Mandel, David R and Barnes, Alan}, 
title = {Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence}, 
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, 
volume = {111}, 
number = {30}, 
pages = {201406138--201410989}, 
year = {2014}, 
abstract = {Abstract The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier.}, 
location = {Socio-Cognitive Systems Section, Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada M3K 2C9; and drmandel66@gmail.com.}, 
keywords = {}}

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