Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings. Maria, D., Sushama, L., Almansour, H., Khaliq, M. N., Nguyen, V., & Chouinard, L. Results in Engineering, 2024. ![Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper abstract bibtex Creager flood envelope curves, which serve as the upper bound/limit of observed extreme flows, are commonly used by practitioners to estimate design flood magnitudes, which in the case of most river-crossing highway bridges is 75-year flood magnitude in Canada. This study proposes a novel framework for climate change adaption of Creager curves for estimating future design floods. These curves, for the current period, are assessed considering 417 observation stations, located in seven major Canadian river basins (i.e., Fraser, Nelson, Mackenzie, Yukon, Churchill, St Lawrence and St John). The Creager coefficient C, which defines flood envelope curves, varies between 1 and 45 across the studied river basins. To adapt Creager curves for future changes in streamflow, a correction factor, RC, which is the ratio of future to current period C values, is proposed. These factors are obtained for observation sites, using streamflow data from an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for current and future periods, through two Regional Frequency Analysis approaches. The first approach, considering only the RCM cells where the stations are located, suggests RC in the 0.3–1.6 range, with southeasterly basins showing values < 1. The second approach, considering all RCM cells for a given region, yields a wider range for RC and adds useful information in that RC values can also be established at ungauged locations. From a practical viewpoint, the proposed framework for estimating future design floods is robust and transferrable to other basins, but can benefit using streamflow projections from other models for better uncertainty quantification.
© 2024 The Authors
@article{20241315823768 ,
language = {English},
copyright = {Compilation and indexing terms, Copyright 2025 Elsevier Inc.},
copyright = {Compendex},
title = {Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings},
journal = {Results in Engineering},
author = {Maria, Dona and Sushama, Laxmi and Almansour, Husham and Khaliq, Muhammad Naveed and Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van and Chouinard, Luc},
volume = {22},
year = {2024},
issn = {25901230},
abstract = {<div data-language="eng" data-ev-field="abstract">Creager flood envelope curves, which serve as the upper bound/limit of observed extreme flows, are commonly used by practitioners to estimate design flood magnitudes, which in the case of most river-crossing highway bridges is 75-year flood magnitude in Canada. This study proposes a novel framework for climate change adaption of Creager curves for estimating future design floods. These curves, for the current period, are assessed considering 417 observation stations, located in seven major Canadian river basins (i.e., Fraser, Nelson, Mackenzie, Yukon, Churchill, St Lawrence and St John). The Creager coefficient C, which defines flood envelope curves, varies between 1 and 45 across the studied river basins. To adapt Creager curves for future changes in streamflow, a correction factor, R<inf>C</inf>, which is the ratio of future to current period C values, is proposed. These factors are obtained for observation sites, using streamflow data from an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for current and future periods, through two Regional Frequency Analysis approaches. The first approach, considering only the RCM cells where the stations are located, suggests R<inf>C</inf> in the 0.3–1.6 range, with southeasterly basins showing values < 1. The second approach, considering all RCM cells for a given region, yields a wider range for R<inf>C</inf> and adds useful information in that R<inf>C</inf> values can also be established at ungauged locations. From a practical viewpoint, the proposed framework for estimating future design floods is robust and transferrable to other basins, but can benefit using streamflow projections from other models for better uncertainty quantification.<br/></div> © 2024 The Authors},
key = {Climate change},
%keywords = {Climate models;Flood control;Floods;Frequency estimation;Highway bridges;Rivers;Stream flow;Uncertainty analysis;Watersheds;},
%note = {'current;Creager curve;Design flood;Envelope curve;Flood magnitudes;Future designs;Regional climate;Regional climate modeling;Regional flood frequency analysis;River crossings;},
URL = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2024.102038},
}
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N.","Nguyen, V.","Chouinard, L."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","language":"English","copyright":"Compendex","title":"Future flood envelope curves for the estimation of design flood magnitudes for highway bridges at river crossings","journal":"Results in Engineering","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Maria"],"firstnames":["Dona"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Sushama"],"firstnames":["Laxmi"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Almansour"],"firstnames":["Husham"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Khaliq"],"firstnames":["Muhammad","Naveed"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Nguyen"],"firstnames":["Van-Thanh-Van"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Chouinard"],"firstnames":["Luc"],"suffixes":[]}],"volume":"22","year":"2024","issn":"25901230","abstract":"<div data-language=\"eng\" data-ev-field=\"abstract\">Creager flood envelope curves, which serve as the upper bound/limit of observed extreme flows, are commonly used by practitioners to estimate design flood magnitudes, which in the case of most river-crossing highway bridges is 75-year flood magnitude in Canada. This study proposes a novel framework for climate change adaption of Creager curves for estimating future design floods. These curves, for the current period, are assessed considering 417 observation stations, located in seven major Canadian river basins (i.e., Fraser, Nelson, Mackenzie, Yukon, Churchill, St Lawrence and St John). The Creager coefficient C, which defines flood envelope curves, varies between 1 and 45 across the studied river basins. To adapt Creager curves for future changes in streamflow, a correction factor, R<inf>C</inf>, which is the ratio of future to current period C values, is proposed. These factors are obtained for observation sites, using streamflow data from an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for current and future periods, through two Regional Frequency Analysis approaches. The first approach, considering only the RCM cells where the stations are located, suggests R<inf>C</inf> in the 0.3–1.6 range, with southeasterly basins showing values < 1. The second approach, considering all RCM cells for a given region, yields a wider range for R<inf>C</inf> and adds useful information in that R<inf>C</inf> values can also be established at ungauged locations. 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