The economic value of environmental data: a notional insurance scheme for the European anchovy. Maria Rincon, M., Mumford, J. D., Levontin, P., Leach, A. W., & Ruiz, J. ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 73(4):1033-1041, OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND, MAR-APR, 2016.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
Anchovy population dynamics in the Gulf of Cadiz are governed by environmental processes. Sea surface temperature, intense easterly winds, and discharges from the Guadalquivir River have been identified as key factors determining early life stage mortality in this anchovy stock. We have constructed an environment-based recruitment model that simulates the abundance of juveniles under alternative parameters representing plausible biological hypotheses. We are able to evaluate how modelling environment-based recruitment can affect stock assessment and how responding to environmental information can benefit fishery management to allow greater average catch levels through the application of harvest control rules (HCRs) based on environmental conditions. While the environment-based rules generally increase allowable catch levels the variance in catch levels also increases, detracting from the improved value based only on average yield. In addition to changes in revenue, the probability of stock collapse is also reduced by using environmental factors in HCRs. To assess the value of these management systems we simulate a notional insurance scheme, which applies a value to both average yields and uncertainty. The value of the information-driven rules can be determined by comparing the relevant premiums payable for equal levels of insurance cover on revenue within each specific management regime. We demonstrate the net value of incorporating environmental factors in the management of anchovies in the Gulf of Cadiz despite the increased variability in revenue. This could be an effective method to describe outcomes for both commercial fisheries and ecosystem management policies, and as a guide to management of other species whose dynamics are predictable based on in-season observations.
@article{ ISI:000373233600005,
Author = {Maria Rincon, Margarita and Mumford, John D. and Levontin, Polina and
   Leach, Adrian W. and Ruiz, Javier},
Title = {{The economic value of environmental data: a notional insurance scheme
   for the European anchovy}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2016}},
Volume = {{73}},
Number = {{4}},
Pages = {{1033-1041}},
Month = {{MAR-APR}},
Abstract = {{Anchovy population dynamics in the Gulf of Cadiz are governed by
   environmental processes. Sea surface temperature, intense easterly
   winds, and discharges from the Guadalquivir River have been identified
   as key factors determining early life stage mortality in this anchovy
   stock. We have constructed an environment-based recruitment model that
   simulates the abundance of juveniles under alternative parameters
   representing plausible biological hypotheses. We are able to evaluate
   how modelling environment-based recruitment can affect stock assessment
   and how responding to environmental information can benefit fishery
   management to allow greater average catch levels through the application
   of harvest control rules (HCRs) based on environmental conditions. While
   the environment-based rules generally increase allowable catch levels
   the variance in catch levels also increases, detracting from the
   improved value based only on average yield. In addition to changes in
   revenue, the probability of stock collapse is also reduced by using
   environmental factors in HCRs. To assess the value of these management
   systems we simulate a notional insurance scheme, which applies a value
   to both average yields and uncertainty. The value of the
   information-driven rules can be determined by comparing the relevant
   premiums payable for equal levels of insurance cover on revenue within
   each specific management regime. We demonstrate the net value of
   incorporating environmental factors in the management of anchovies in
   the Gulf of Cadiz despite the increased variability in revenue. This
   could be an effective method to describe outcomes for both commercial
   fisheries and ecosystem management policies, and as a guide to
   management of other species whose dynamics are predictable based on
   in-season observations.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Rincon, MM (Reprint Author), Invest Cient ICMAN CSIC, Dept Coastal Ecol \& Management, Inst Ciencias Marinas Andalucia, Consejo Super, Cadiz 11510, Spain.
   Maria Rincon, Margarita; Ruiz, Javier, Invest Cient ICMAN CSIC, Dept Coastal Ecol \& Management, Inst Ciencias Marinas Andalucia, Consejo Super, Cadiz 11510, Spain.
   Mumford, John D.; Levontin, Polina; Leach, Adrian W., Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol \& Med, Ctr Environm Policy, Silwood Pk Campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsv268}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
EISSN = {{1095-9289}},
Keywords = {{Gulf of Cadiz and European anchovy; harvest control rule; insurance;
   risk}},
Keywords-Plus = {{ENGRAULIS-ENCRASICOLUS L.; CADIZ SW SPAIN; MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES;
   FISHERIES; ATLANTIS; BAY; BISCAY; STOCKS; MODEL; GULF}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{margarita.rincon@icman.csic.es}},
Funding-Acknowledgement = {{European Union Seventh Framework Programme {[}244706, 613571]; Junta de
   Andalucia {[}P09-RNM-5358]}},
Funding-Text = {{The research leading to these results has received funding from the
   European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant
   agreement 244706/ECOKNOWS project. However, the paper does not
   necessarily reflect EC views and in no way anticipates the Commission's
   future policy in the area. M.M.R. was funded by P09-RNM-5358 of the
   Junta de Andalucia and the European Union Seventh Framework
   Programme(FP7-KBBE-2013) under grant agreement 613571/MAREFRAME project.}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{34}},
Times-Cited = {{1}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{3}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{7}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{DI1CM}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000373233600005}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}
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