Forecasting Passenger Fleet Fuel Consumption–A New Methodology to Include Uncertainty Analysis. Martin, N. P.; Bishop, J. D.; Choudhary, R.; and Boies, A. M In Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting, 2015.
abstract   bibtex   
The UK's light duty vehicle fleet is the largest end user of refined petroleum, accounting for 12.5% of national UK CO2 emissions in 2010. Despite this, current fleet turnover and fuel consumption models do not account for advances in engine technologies, and are unable to account for uncertainties when used to forecast future fleet fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This paper introduces a methodology for determining new car fleet fuel consumption based on vehicle design metrics, and accounts for uncertainties inherent in such predictions using a Bayesian statistical framework. Sources of uncertainty are also listed and quantified, while the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) shown to underestimate on-road fuel consumption in Spark and Compression Ignition vehicles by 14% and 17%, respectively. A Bayesian fuel consumption model attributes these discrepancies to the NEDC�s misrepresentation of rolling, frictional and aerodynamic resistances, while on-road fuel consumption estimates were derived using inputs for the engine size, vehicle mass, and compression ratio. The likely 2020 on-road fuel consumption of the average SI and CI vehicles was estimated to be 6.5 L/100 km and 5.8 L/100 km, respectively, which represents a 21% and 16% reduction over the average 2011 NEDC estimate. These forecasts exceed the mandatory fuel equivalent emissions standards set for that year, highlighting the need for more stringent technological developments to ensure vehicle manufacturers meet emissions targets.
@inproceedings{martin2015forecasting,
  title={Forecasting Passenger Fleet Fuel Consumption--A New Methodology to Include Uncertainty Analysis},
  author={Martin, Niall PD and Bishop, Justin DK and Choudhary, Ruchi and Boies, Adam M},
  booktitle={Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting},
  abstract={The UK's light duty vehicle fleet is the largest end user of refined petroleum, accounting for 12.5% of national UK CO2 emissions in 2010. Despite this, current fleet turnover and fuel consumption models do not account for advances in engine technologies, and are unable to account for uncertainties when used to forecast future fleet fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This paper introduces a methodology for determining new car fleet fuel consumption based on vehicle design metrics, and accounts for uncertainties inherent in such predictions using a Bayesian statistical framework. Sources of uncertainty are also listed and quantified, while the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) shown to underestimate on-road fuel consumption in Spark and Compression Ignition vehicles by 14% and 17%, respectively. A Bayesian fuel consumption model attributes these discrepancies to the NEDC�s misrepresentation of rolling, frictional and aerodynamic resistances, while on-road fuel consumption estimates were derived using inputs for the engine size, vehicle mass, and compression ratio. The likely 2020 on-road fuel consumption of the average SI and CI vehicles was estimated to be 6.5 L/100 km and 5.8 L/100 km, respectively, which represents a 21% and 16% reduction over the average 2011 NEDC estimate. These forecasts exceed the mandatory fuel equivalent emissions standards set for that year, highlighting the need for more stringent technological developments to ensure vehicle manufacturers meet emissions targets.},
  number={15-4186},
  year={2015}
}
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