Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?. Maystadt, J. & Ecker, O. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(4):1157–1182, July, 2014.
Paper doi abstract bibtex A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.
@article{maystadt_extreme_2014,
title = {Extreme {Weather} and {Civil} {War}: {Does} {Drought} {Fuel} {Conflict} in {Somalia} through {Livestock} {Price} {Shocks}?},
volume = {96},
issn = {0002-9092, 1467-8276},
shorttitle = {Extreme {Weather} and {Civil} {War}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/ajae/aau010},
doi = {10.1093/ajae/aau010},
abstract = {A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62\%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.},
language = {en},
number = {4},
urldate = {2017-10-04},
journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics},
author = {Maystadt, J.-F. and Ecker, O.},
month = jul,
year = {2014},
keywords = {CK, Untagged},
pages = {1157--1182},
}
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