The Drama of Uncertainty. Mearns, L. O. Climatic Change, 100(1):77–85, May, 2010.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
[Excerpt] Concluding remarks. We do not have consensus among stakeholders/decision makers, climate scientists, and social scientists on the relative importance of reducing uncertainty about future regional climate change for decision making. And we may never have such consensus. In this regard we are faced with an instance of meta-deep uncertainty. While it makes sense that there may be different perspectives on this issue based on what aspect of regional adaptation to climate change one is considering, it is also clear that perspectives are still too far apart. Looking at the problem of planning for adaptation as a whole, the failure to arrive at a more unified perspective on the issue of reducing climate change uncertainty indicates a failure to advance seamless interdisciplinarity. The journal Climatic Change, perhaps more than any other, has promoted the broad-based interdisciplinarity that is needed for us to move ahead on this problem. It will continue to be instrumental as we move forward to create the seamless interdisciplinarity that is needed. Large amounts of computing power and funding likely will continue to be dedicated to modeling future climate. The large number of climate simulations at higher spatial resolutions planned for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report attests to this, and we will certainly learn from these results. But will we learn as much as we might if we had a truly balanced research program that also provided sufficient funding for indepth vulnerability assessments and investment in improving or expanding decision making protocols under deep uncertainty? Let us hope that such a balanced program is still possible.
@article{mearnsDramaUncertainty2010,
  title = {The Drama of Uncertainty},
  author = {Mearns, Linda O.},
  year = {2010},
  month = may,
  volume = {100},
  pages = {77--85},
  issn = {0165-0009},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9841-6},
  abstract = {[Excerpt] Concluding remarks. We do not have consensus among stakeholders/decision makers, climate scientists, and social scientists on the relative importance of reducing uncertainty about future regional climate change for decision making. And we may never have such consensus. In this regard we are faced with an instance of meta-deep uncertainty. While it makes sense that there may be different perspectives on this issue based on what aspect of regional adaptation to climate change one is considering, it is also clear that perspectives are still too far apart. Looking at the problem of planning for adaptation as a whole, the failure to arrive at a more unified perspective on the issue of reducing climate change uncertainty indicates a failure to advance seamless interdisciplinarity. The journal Climatic Change, perhaps more than any other, has promoted the broad-based interdisciplinarity that is needed for us to move ahead on this problem. It will continue to be instrumental as we move forward to create the seamless interdisciplinarity that is needed. Large amounts of computing power and funding likely will continue to be dedicated to modeling future climate. The large number of climate simulations at higher spatial resolutions planned for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report attests to this, and we will certainly learn from these results. But will we learn as much as we might if we had a truly balanced research program that also provided sufficient funding for indepth vulnerability assessments and investment in improving or expanding decision making protocols under deep uncertainty? Let us hope that such a balanced program is still possible.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7298602,accuracy,adaptation,climate-change,deep-uncertainty,science-based-decision-making,science-policy-interface,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-7298602},
  number = {1}
}

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