Modeling traffic on the web graph. Meiss, M., R., Gonçalves, B., Ramasco, J., J., Flammini, A., & Menczer, F. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), 6516 LNCS:50-61, 2010.
Modeling traffic on the web graph [link]Website  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Analysis of aggregate and individual Web requests shows that PageRank is a poor predictor of traffic. We use empirical data to characterize properties of Web traffic not reproduced by Markovian models, including both aggregate statistics such as page and link traffic, and individual statistics such as entropy and session size. As no current model reconciles all of these observations, we present an agent-based model that explains them through realistic browsing behaviors: (1) revisiting bookmarked pages; (2) backtracking; and (3) seeking out novel pages of topical interest. The resulting model can reproduce the behaviors we observe in empirical data, especially heterogeneous session lengths, reconciling the narrowly focused browsing patterns of individual users with the extreme variance in aggregate traffic measurements. We can thereby identify a few salient features that are necessary and sufficient to interpret Web traffic data. Beyond the descriptive and explanatory power of our model, these results may lead to improvements in Web applications such as search and crawling. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.
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 title = {Modeling traffic on the web graph},
 type = {article},
 year = {2010},
 keywords = {Agent-based model; Aggregate traffic; Browsing beh,Algorithms; Markov processes; Mathematical models,World Wide Web; Aggregates},
 pages = {50-61},
 volume = {6516 LNCS},
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 notes = {cited By 5; Conference of 7th International Workshop on Algorithms and Models for the Web Graph, WAW 2010 ; Conference Date: 13 December 2010 Through 14 December 2010; Conference Code:83365},
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 abstract = {Analysis of aggregate and individual Web requests shows that PageRank is a poor predictor of traffic. We use empirical data to characterize properties of Web traffic not reproduced by Markovian models, including both aggregate statistics such as page and link traffic, and individual statistics such as entropy and session size. As no current model reconciles all of these observations, we present an agent-based model that explains them through realistic browsing behaviors: (1) revisiting bookmarked pages; (2) backtracking; and (3) seeking out novel pages of topical interest. The resulting model can reproduce the behaviors we observe in empirical data, especially heterogeneous session lengths, reconciling the narrowly focused browsing patterns of individual users with the extreme variance in aggregate traffic measurements. We can thereby identify a few salient features that are necessary and sufficient to interpret Web traffic data. Beyond the descriptive and explanatory power of our model, these results may lead to improvements in Web applications such as search and crawling. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Meiss, M R and Gonçalves, B and Ramasco, J J and Flammini, A and Menczer, F},
 doi = {10.1007/978-3-642-18009-5_6},
 journal = {Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)}
}

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