Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty. Millar, C. I., Stephenson, N. L., & Stephens, S. L. 17(8):2145–2151.
Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. [Excerpt: Conclusions] Over the last several decades, forest managers in North America have used concepts of historical range of variability, natural range of variability, and ecological sustainability to set goals and inform management decisions. An underlying premise in these approaches is that by maintaining forest conditions within the range of presettlement conditions, managers are most likely to sustainably maintain forests into the future. We argue that although we have important lessons to learn from the past, we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with adequate targets for current and future management. This reality must be considered in policy, planning, and management. Climate variability, both naturally caused and anthropogenic, as well as modern land-use practices and stressors, create novel environmental conditions never before experienced by ecosystems. Under such conditions, historical ecology suggests that we manage for species persistence within large eco-regions. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Management practices such as assisting species migrations, creating porous landscapes, or increasing diversity in genetic and species planting mixes may be appropriate. Essential to managing for uncertainty is the imperative to learn-as-you-go. Although general principles will emerge, the best preparation is for managers and planners to remain informed both about emerging climate science as well as land-use changes in their region, and to use that knowledge to shape effective local solutions. A goal of this paper is to engage dialogue on this issue.
@article{millarClimateChangeForests2007,
  title = {Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty},
  author = {Millar, Constance I. and Stephenson, Nathan L. and Stephens, Scott L.},
  date = {2007-12},
  journaltitle = {Ecological Applications},
  volume = {17},
  pages = {2145--2151},
  issn = {1051-0761},
  doi = {10.1890/06-1715.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1890/06-1715.1},
  abstract = {We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future.

[Excerpt: Conclusions]

Over the last several decades, forest managers in North America have used concepts of historical range of variability, natural range of variability, and ecological sustainability to set goals and inform management decisions. An underlying premise in these approaches is that by maintaining forest conditions within the range of presettlement conditions, managers are most likely to sustainably maintain forests into the future. We argue that although we have important lessons to learn from the past, we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with adequate targets for current and future management. This reality must be considered in policy, planning, and management. Climate variability, both naturally caused and anthropogenic, as well as modern land-use practices and stressors, create novel environmental conditions never before experienced by ecosystems. Under such conditions, historical ecology suggests that we manage for species persistence within large eco-regions. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Management practices such as assisting species migrations, creating porous landscapes, or increasing diversity in genetic and species planting mixes may be appropriate. Essential to managing for uncertainty is the imperative to learn-as-you-go. Although general principles will emerge, the best preparation is for managers and planners to remain informed both about emerging climate science as well as land-use changes in their region, and to use that knowledge to shape effective local solutions. A goal of this paper is to engage dialogue on this issue.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13093403,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,climate-change,forest-management,forest-resources,mitigation,uncertainty},
  number = {8}
}
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