Extreme Hydrometeorological Events and Climate Change Predictions in Europe. Millán, M. M. 518:206–224. ![Extreme Hydrometeorological Events and Climate Change Predictions in Europe [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. [::] Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. [::] Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. [::] Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. [::] Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. [Abstract] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. Field meteorological data collected in several European Commission projects (from 1974 to 2011) were re-analysed in the context of a perceived reduction in summer storms around the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). The findings reveal some hitherto overlooked processes that raise questions about direct impacts on European hydrological cycles, e.g., extreme hydrometeorological events, and about the role of feedbacks on climate models and climate predictions. For instance, the summer storms are affected by land-use changes along the coasts and mountain slopes. Their loss triggers a chain of events that leads to an Accumulation Mode (AM) where water vapour and air pollutants (ozone) become stacked in layers, up to 4000(+)~m, over the WMB. The AM cycle can last 3-5~consecutive days, and recur several times each month from mid May to late August. At the end of each cycle the accumulated water vapour can feed Vb track events and generate intense rainfall and summer floods in Central Europe. Venting out of the water vapour that should have precipitated within the WMB increases the salinity of the sea and affects the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity valve at Gibraltar. This, in turn, can alter the tracks of Atlantic Depressions and their frontal systems over Atlantic Europe. Another effect is the greenhouse heating by water vapour and photo-oxidants (e.g., O3) when layered over the Basin during the AM cycle. This increases the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and the higher SST intensifies torrential rain events over the Mediterranean coasts in autumn. All these processes raise research questions that must be addressed to improve the meteorological forecasting of extreme events, as well as climate model predictions. [Excerpt: Conclusions] To finalise, the following points should be considered regarding extreme hydrometeorological events and possible climatic implications: [::] Drought and torrential rains in areas around enclosed seas in the subtropical latitudes (e.g. Mediterranean, Sea of Japan, South China Sea) are the result of a series of concatenated meteorological processes involving water vapour accumulation modes over the interior seas. [::] These result from atmosphere-land-oceanic feedbacks and the folding of the boundary layers over the seas, and, in particular over the WMB. [::] The same processes can also lead to intense precipitation events and summer floods in other parts of Europe (i.e., points along the European Continental Divide, or within the Mediterranean Catchment side of the Divide). [::] Moreover, through the intensification of the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity Valve at Gibraltar, the North Atlantic Oscillation could be perturbed and affect precipitation regimes on the Atlantic side of the European Continental Divide. [::] Therefore, the local-to-regional perturbations initiated by land-use changes at the local level may propagate their effects to the Global Climate System. [::] The basic atmosphere-land-ocean exchange governing these processes, through BL parametrisations, is not (and probably cannot be) included in current Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). [::] Thus, the feedback processes in the hydrological cycle, which govern the partitioning of precipitation and the recycling of water vapour, as well as the development of extreme hydro-meteorological events, cannot currently be simulated in the AOGC Models used to assess extreme events in sub-tropical latitudes. [] This situation now presents the research community with very important challenges to improve: first, meteorological forecasting methods adapted to these processes, and second, Atmosphere-Land-Oceanic parametrisations in Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. It alerts that hasty decisions on the future of the water cycle using current models could be wrong and have catastrophic consequences not only for Southern Europe, but also for the rest of Europe.
@article{millanExtremeHydrometeorologicalEvents2014,
title = {Extreme Hydrometeorological Events and Climate Change Predictions in {{Europe}}},
author = {Millán, Millán M.},
date = {2014-10},
journaltitle = {Journal of Hydrology},
volume = {518},
pages = {206--224},
issn = {0022-1694},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes.
[::] Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin.
[::] Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe.
[::] Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature.
[::] Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn.
[Abstract] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. Field meteorological data collected in several European Commission projects (from 1974 to 2011) were re-analysed in the context of a perceived reduction in summer storms around the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). The findings reveal some hitherto overlooked processes that raise questions about direct impacts on European hydrological cycles, e.g., extreme hydrometeorological events, and about the role of feedbacks on climate models and climate predictions. For instance, the summer storms are affected by land-use changes along the coasts and mountain slopes. Their loss triggers a chain of events that leads to an Accumulation Mode (AM) where water vapour and air pollutants (ozone) become stacked in layers, up to 4000(+)~m, over the WMB. The AM cycle can last 3-5~consecutive days, and recur several times each month from mid May to late August. At the end of each cycle the accumulated water vapour can feed Vb track events and generate intense rainfall and summer floods in Central Europe. Venting out of the water vapour that should have precipitated within the WMB increases the salinity of the sea and affects the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity valve at Gibraltar. This, in turn, can alter the tracks of Atlantic Depressions and their frontal systems over Atlantic Europe. Another effect is the greenhouse heating by water vapour and photo-oxidants (e.g., O3) when layered over the Basin during the AM cycle. This increases the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and the higher SST intensifies torrential rain events over the Mediterranean coasts in autumn. All these processes raise research questions that must be addressed to improve the meteorological forecasting of extreme events, as well as climate model predictions.
[Excerpt: Conclusions]
To finalise, the following points should be considered regarding extreme hydrometeorological events and possible climatic implications:
[::] Drought and torrential rains in areas around enclosed seas in the subtropical latitudes (e.g. Mediterranean, Sea of Japan, South China Sea) are the result of a series of concatenated meteorological processes involving water vapour accumulation modes over the interior seas. [::] These result from atmosphere-land-oceanic feedbacks and the folding of the boundary layers over the seas, and, in particular over the WMB. [::] The same processes can also lead to intense precipitation events and summer floods in other parts of Europe (i.e., points along the European Continental Divide, or within the Mediterranean Catchment side of the Divide). [::] Moreover, through the intensification of the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity Valve at Gibraltar, the North Atlantic Oscillation could be perturbed and affect precipitation regimes on the Atlantic side of the European Continental Divide. [::] Therefore, the local-to-regional perturbations initiated by land-use changes at the local level may propagate their effects to the Global Climate System. [::] The basic atmosphere-land-ocean exchange governing these processes, through BL parametrisations, is not (and probably cannot be) included in current Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). [::] Thus, the feedback processes in the hydrological cycle, which govern the partitioning of precipitation and the recycling of water vapour, as well as the development of extreme hydro-meteorological events, cannot currently be simulated in the AOGC Models used to assess extreme events in sub-tropical latitudes.
[] This situation now presents the research community with very important challenges to improve: first, meteorological forecasting methods adapted to these processes, and second, Atmosphere-Land-Oceanic parametrisations in Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. It alerts that hasty decisions on the future of the water cycle using current models could be wrong and have catastrophic consequences not only for Southern Europe, but also for the rest of Europe.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13839599,climate-change,droughts,europe,extreme-events,extreme-weather,land-use,precipitation,storm}
}
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{"_id":"7LsfJwNek87FdPPkX","bibbaseid":"milln-extremehydrometeorologicaleventsandclimatechangepredictionsineurope","authorIDs":[],"author_short":["Millán, M. M."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Extreme Hydrometeorological Events and Climate Change Predictions in Europe","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Millán"],"firstnames":["Millán","M."],"suffixes":[]}],"date":"2014-10","journaltitle":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"518","pages":"206–224","issn":"0022-1694","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041","abstract":"[Highlights] [::] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. [::] Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. [::] Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. [::] Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. [::] Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. [Abstract] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. Field meteorological data collected in several European Commission projects (from 1974 to 2011) were re-analysed in the context of a perceived reduction in summer storms around the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). The findings reveal some hitherto overlooked processes that raise questions about direct impacts on European hydrological cycles, e.g., extreme hydrometeorological events, and about the role of feedbacks on climate models and climate predictions. For instance, the summer storms are affected by land-use changes along the coasts and mountain slopes. Their loss triggers a chain of events that leads to an Accumulation Mode (AM) where water vapour and air pollutants (ozone) become stacked in layers, up to 4000(+)~m, over the WMB. The AM cycle can last 3-5~consecutive days, and recur several times each month from mid May to late August. At the end of each cycle the accumulated water vapour can feed Vb track events and generate intense rainfall and summer floods in Central Europe. Venting out of the water vapour that should have precipitated within the WMB increases the salinity of the sea and affects the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity valve at Gibraltar. This, in turn, can alter the tracks of Atlantic Depressions and their frontal systems over Atlantic Europe. Another effect is the greenhouse heating by water vapour and photo-oxidants (e.g., O3) when layered over the Basin during the AM cycle. This increases the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and the higher SST intensifies torrential rain events over the Mediterranean coasts in autumn. All these processes raise research questions that must be addressed to improve the meteorological forecasting of extreme events, as well as climate model predictions. [Excerpt: Conclusions] To finalise, the following points should be considered regarding extreme hydrometeorological events and possible climatic implications: [::] Drought and torrential rains in areas around enclosed seas in the subtropical latitudes (e.g. Mediterranean, Sea of Japan, South China Sea) are the result of a series of concatenated meteorological processes involving water vapour accumulation modes over the interior seas. [::] These result from atmosphere-land-oceanic feedbacks and the folding of the boundary layers over the seas, and, in particular over the WMB. [::] The same processes can also lead to intense precipitation events and summer floods in other parts of Europe (i.e., points along the European Continental Divide, or within the Mediterranean Catchment side of the Divide). [::] Moreover, through the intensification of the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity Valve at Gibraltar, the North Atlantic Oscillation could be perturbed and affect precipitation regimes on the Atlantic side of the European Continental Divide. [::] Therefore, the local-to-regional perturbations initiated by land-use changes at the local level may propagate their effects to the Global Climate System. [::] The basic atmosphere-land-ocean exchange governing these processes, through BL parametrisations, is not (and probably cannot be) included in current Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). [::] Thus, the feedback processes in the hydrological cycle, which govern the partitioning of precipitation and the recycling of water vapour, as well as the development of extreme hydro-meteorological events, cannot currently be simulated in the AOGC Models used to assess extreme events in sub-tropical latitudes. [] This situation now presents the research community with very important challenges to improve: first, meteorological forecasting methods adapted to these processes, and second, Atmosphere-Land-Oceanic parametrisations in Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. It alerts that hasty decisions on the future of the water cycle using current models could be wrong and have catastrophic consequences not only for Southern Europe, but also for the rest of Europe.","keywords":"*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13839599,climate-change,droughts,europe,extreme-events,extreme-weather,land-use,precipitation,storm","bibtex":"@article{millanExtremeHydrometeorologicalEvents2014,\n title = {Extreme Hydrometeorological Events and Climate Change Predictions in {{Europe}}},\n author = {Millán, Millán M.},\n date = {2014-10},\n journaltitle = {Journal of Hydrology},\n volume = {518},\n pages = {206--224},\n issn = {0022-1694},\n doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041},\n url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041},\n abstract = {[Highlights]\n\n[::] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes.\n\n[::] Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin.\n\n[::] Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe.\n\n[::] Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature.\n\n[::] Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn.\n\n[Abstract] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. Field meteorological data collected in several European Commission projects (from 1974 to 2011) were re-analysed in the context of a perceived reduction in summer storms around the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). The findings reveal some hitherto overlooked processes that raise questions about direct impacts on European hydrological cycles, e.g., extreme hydrometeorological events, and about the role of feedbacks on climate models and climate predictions. For instance, the summer storms are affected by land-use changes along the coasts and mountain slopes. Their loss triggers a chain of events that leads to an Accumulation Mode (AM) where water vapour and air pollutants (ozone) become stacked in layers, up to 4000(+)~m, over the WMB. The AM cycle can last 3-5~consecutive days, and recur several times each month from mid May to late August. At the end of each cycle the accumulated water vapour can feed Vb track events and generate intense rainfall and summer floods in Central Europe. Venting out of the water vapour that should have precipitated within the WMB increases the salinity of the sea and affects the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity valve at Gibraltar. This, in turn, can alter the tracks of Atlantic Depressions and their frontal systems over Atlantic Europe. Another effect is the greenhouse heating by water vapour and photo-oxidants (e.g., O3) when layered over the Basin during the AM cycle. This increases the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and the higher SST intensifies torrential rain events over the Mediterranean coasts in autumn. All these processes raise research questions that must be addressed to improve the meteorological forecasting of extreme events, as well as climate model predictions.\n\n[Excerpt: Conclusions]\n\nTo finalise, the following points should be considered regarding extreme hydrometeorological events and possible climatic implications:\n\n[::] Drought and torrential rains in areas around enclosed seas in the subtropical latitudes (e.g. Mediterranean, Sea of Japan, South China Sea) are the result of a series of concatenated meteorological processes involving water vapour accumulation modes over the interior seas. [::] These result from atmosphere-land-oceanic feedbacks and the folding of the boundary layers over the seas, and, in particular over the WMB. [::] The same processes can also lead to intense precipitation events and summer floods in other parts of Europe (i.e., points along the European Continental Divide, or within the Mediterranean Catchment side of the Divide). [::] Moreover, through the intensification of the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity Valve at Gibraltar, the North Atlantic Oscillation could be perturbed and affect precipitation regimes on the Atlantic side of the European Continental Divide. [::] Therefore, the local-to-regional perturbations initiated by land-use changes at the local level may propagate their effects to the Global Climate System. [::] The basic atmosphere-land-ocean exchange governing these processes, through BL parametrisations, is not (and probably cannot be) included in current Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). [::] Thus, the feedback processes in the hydrological cycle, which govern the partitioning of precipitation and the recycling of water vapour, as well as the development of extreme hydro-meteorological events, cannot currently be simulated in the AOGC Models used to assess extreme events in sub-tropical latitudes.\n\n[] This situation now presents the research community with very important challenges to improve: first, meteorological forecasting methods adapted to these processes, and second, Atmosphere-Land-Oceanic parametrisations in Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. It alerts that hasty decisions on the future of the water cycle using current models could be wrong and have catastrophic consequences not only for Southern Europe, but also for the rest of Europe.},\n keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13839599,climate-change,droughts,europe,extreme-events,extreme-weather,land-use,precipitation,storm}\n}\n\n","author_short":["Millán, M. 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