Why risk analysis outperforms probabilistic choice as the effective decision support paradigm for power system planning

Why risk analysis outperforms probabilistic choice as the effective decision support paradigm for power system planning. Miranda, V. & Proenca, L‥ Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, 13(2):643 --648, May, 1998.

Paper doi abstract bibtex

This paper demonstrates that a classical stochastic optimization is, in many cases, not convenient for power system planning. Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. In a comparison of both planning paradigms, the probabilistic approach is in occasions not adequate, is half blind to compromise solutions and leads, in numerous, cases to riskier decisions. The technical discussion is illustrated with a distribution planning example

@article{ Miranda1998,
  abstract = {This paper demonstrates that a classical stochastic optimization is, in many cases, not convenient for power system planning. Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. In a comparison of both planning paradigms, the probabilistic approach is in occasions not adequate, is half blind to compromise solutions and leads, in numerous, cases to riskier decisions. The technical discussion is illustrated with a distribution planning example},
  author = {Miranda, V. and Proenca, L.M.},
  doi = {10.1109/59.667394},
  issn = {0885-8950},
  journal = {Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on},
  keywords = {compromise solutions,decision risk,decision support paradigm,decision theory,distribution networks,power distribution system planning,power system planning,probabilistic choice,probability,risk analysis,risk management,technical discussion},
  mendeley-tags = {compromise solutions,decision risk,decision support paradigm,decision theory,distribution networks,power distribution system planning,power system planning,probabilistic choice,probability,risk analysis,risk management,technical discussion},
  month = {May},
  number = {2},
  pages = {643 --648},
  title = {{Why risk analysis outperforms probabilistic choice as the effective decision support paradigm for power system planning}},
  url = {http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx3/59/14619/00667394.pdf?tp=\&arnumber=667394\&isnumber=14619 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=\&arnumber=667394},
  volume = {13},
  year = {1998}
}

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Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. In a comparison of both planning paradigms, the probabilistic approach is in occasions not adequate, is half blind to compromise solutions and leads, in numerous, cases to riskier decisions. The technical discussion is illustrated with a distribution planning example},\n author = {Miranda, V. and Proenca, L.M.},\n doi = {10.1109/59.667394},\n issn = {0885-8950},\n journal = {Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on},\n keywords = {compromise solutions,decision risk,decision support paradigm,decision theory,distribution networks,power distribution system planning,power system planning,probabilistic choice,probability,risk analysis,risk management,technical discussion},\n mendeley-tags = {compromise solutions,decision risk,decision support paradigm,decision theory,distribution networks,power distribution system planning,power system planning,probabilistic choice,probability,risk analysis,risk management,technical discussion},\n month = {May},\n number = {2},\n pages = {643 --648},\n title = {{Why risk analysis outperforms probabilistic choice as the effective decision support paradigm for power system planning}},\n url = {http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ielx3/59/14619/00667394.pdf?tp=\\&arnumber=667394\\&isnumber=14619 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=\\&arnumber=667394},\n volume = {13},\n year = {1998}\n}</pre>\n</div>\n\n\n<div class=\"well well-small bibbase\" id=\"abstract_Miranda1998\"\n style=\"display:none\">\n This paper demonstrates that a classical stochastic optimization is, in many cases, not convenient for power system planning. Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. In a comparison of both planning paradigms, the probabilistic approach is in occasions not adequate, is half blind to compromise solutions and leads, in numerous, cases to riskier decisions. The technical discussion is illustrated with a distribution planning example\n</div>\n\n\n</div>\n","downloads":0,"keyword":["compromise solutions","decision risk","decision support paradigm","decision theory","distribution networks","power distribution system planning","power system planning","probabilistic choice","probability","risk analysis","risk management","technical discussion"],"abstract":"This paper demonstrates that a classical stochastic optimization is, in many cases, not convenient for power system planning. Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. 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