Survival after postoperative morbidity: a longitudinal observational cohort study. Moonesinghe, S. R., Harris, S., Mythen, M. G., Rowan, K. M., Haddad, F. S., Emberton, M., & Grocott, M. P. W. British journal of anaesthesia, 113(6):977–984, December, 2014.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that there may be long-term harm associated with postoperative complications. Uncertainty exists however, because of the need for risk adjustment and inconsistent definitions of postoperative morbidity. METHODS: We did a longitudinal observational cohort study of patients undergoing major surgery. Case-mix adjustment was applied and morbidity was recorded using a validated outcome measure. Cox proportional hazards modelling using time-dependent covariates was used to measure the independent relationship between prolonged postoperative morbidity and longer term survival. RESULTS: Data were analysed for 1362 patients. The median length of stay was 9 days and the median follow-up time was 6.5 yr. Independent of perioperative risk, postoperative neurological morbidity (prevalence 2.9%) was associated with a relative hazard for long-term mortality of 2.00 [P=0.001; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-3.04]. Prolonged postoperative morbidity (prevalence 15.6%) conferred a relative hazard for death in the first 12 months after surgery of 3.51 (P\textless0.001; 95% CI 2.28-5.42) and for the next 2 yr of 2.44 (P\textless0.001; 95% CI 1.62-3.65), returning to baseline thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged morbidity after surgery is associated with a risk of premature death for a longer duration than perhaps is commonly thought; however, this risk falls with time. We suggest that prolonged postoperative morbidity measured in this way may be a valid indicator of the quality of surgical healthcare. Our findings reinforce the importance of research and quality improvement initiatives aimed at reducing the duration and severity of postoperative complications.
@article{moonesinghe_survival_2014,
	title = {Survival after postoperative morbidity: a longitudinal observational cohort study.},
	volume = {113},
	copyright = {(c) The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia.},
	issn = {1471-6771 0007-0912},
	doi = {10.1093/bja/aeu224},
	abstract = {BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that there may be long-term harm associated with postoperative complications. Uncertainty exists however, because  of the need for risk adjustment and inconsistent definitions of postoperative morbidity. METHODS: We did a longitudinal observational cohort study of patients  undergoing major surgery. Case-mix adjustment was applied and morbidity was recorded using a validated outcome measure. Cox proportional hazards modelling using time-dependent covariates was used to measure the independent relationship  between prolonged postoperative morbidity and longer term survival. RESULTS: Data were analysed for 1362 patients. The median length of stay was 9 days and the median follow-up time was 6.5 yr. Independent of perioperative risk, postoperative neurological morbidity (prevalence 2.9\%) was associated with a relative hazard for long-term mortality of 2.00 [P=0.001; 95\% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-3.04]. Prolonged postoperative morbidity (prevalence 15.6\%) conferred a relative hazard for death in the first 12 months after surgery of 3.51 (P{\textless}0.001;  95\% CI 2.28-5.42) and for the next 2 yr of 2.44 (P{\textless}0.001; 95\% CI 1.62-3.65), returning to baseline thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged morbidity after surgery  is associated with a risk of premature death for a longer duration than perhaps is commonly thought; however, this risk falls with time. We suggest that prolonged postoperative morbidity measured in this way may be a valid indicator of the quality of surgical healthcare. Our findings reinforce the importance of research and quality improvement initiatives aimed at reducing the duration and severity of postoperative complications.},
	language = {eng},
	number = {6},
	journal = {British journal of anaesthesia},
	author = {Moonesinghe, S. R. and Harris, S. and Mythen, M. G. and Rowan, K. M. and Haddad, F. S. and Emberton, M. and Grocott, M. P. W.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	pmid = {25012586},
	pmcid = {PMC4235571},
	keywords = {Aged, Cohort Studies, Female, Hospital Mortality, Humans, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Length of Stay/statistics \& numerical data, London/epidemiology, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Morbidity, Mortality, Premature, Postoperative Complications/*mortality, Postoperative Period, Quality Indicators, Health Care, Specialties, Surgical, complications, complications, morbidity, complications, neurological, surgery, non-cardiac},
	pages = {977--984},
}

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