The Projected Timing of Climate Departure from Recent Variability. Mora, C., Frazier, A. G., Longman, R. J., Dacks, R. S., Walton, M. M., Tong, E. J., Sanchez, J. J., Kaiser, L. R., Stender, Y. O., Anderson, J. M., Ambrosino, C. M., Fernandez-Silva, I., Giuseffi, L. M., & Giambelluca, T. W. Nature, 502(7470):183–187, October, 2013.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 ($\pm$18\,years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 ($\pm$14\,years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented. [Excerpt] [...] The year at which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds was estimated independently with data from the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP45) and 8.5 (RCP85), which included the period from 2006 to 2100. These pathways or scenarios represent contrasting mitigation efforts between a concerted rapid CO2 mitigation and a 'business-as-usual' scenario (CO2 concentrations could increase to 538 and 936\,p.p.m. by 2100, according to RCP45 and RCP85, respectively). A more aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6) was not analysed, because it was not consistently used among models, and the implicit mitigation effort is considered currently unfeasible. [...]
@article{moraProjectedTimingClimate2013,
  title = {The Projected Timing of Climate Departure from Recent Variability},
  author = {Mora, Camilo and Frazier, Abby G. and Longman, Ryan J. and Dacks, Rachel S. and Walton, Maya M. and Tong, Eric J. and Sanchez, Joseph J. and Kaiser, Lauren R. and Stender, Yuko O. and Anderson, James M. and Ambrosino, Christine M. and {Fernandez-Silva}, Iria and Giuseffi, Louise M. and Giambelluca, Thomas W.},
  year = {2013},
  month = oct,
  volume = {502},
  pages = {183--187},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature12540},
  abstract = {Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 ({$\pm$}18\,years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 ({$\pm$}14\,years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

[Excerpt] [...] The year at which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds was estimated independently with data from the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP45) and 8.5 (RCP85), which included the period from 2006 to 2100. These pathways or scenarios represent contrasting mitigation efforts between a concerted rapid CO2 mitigation and a 'business-as-usual' scenario (CO2 concentrations could increase to 538 and 936\,p.p.m. by 2100, according to RCP45 and RCP85, respectively). A more aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6) was not analysed, because it was not consistently used among models, and the implicit mitigation effort is considered currently unfeasible. [...]},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12711758,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,climate-projections,rcp26},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12711758},
  number = {7470}
}
Downloads: 0
About
Documentation
Keywords
Search
Users
Terms and Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Sitemap
© BibBase.org 2021