Limitations of Oil Production to the IPCC Scenarios: The New Realities of US and Global Oil Production. Murray, J. W. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, December, 2016.
Limitations of Oil Production to the IPCC Scenarios: The New Realities of US and Global Oil Production [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Many of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report for Emission Scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) projections (especially RCP 8.5 and 6) project CO2 emissions due to oil consumption from now to 2100 to be in the range of 32–57 Gb/yr (87–156 mb/d) or (195–349 EJ/yr). World oil production (crude plus condensate) was almost constant from 2002 to 2011 at about 74±1 million barrels per day (mb/d) (US Energy Institute Agency, US EIA). There was an increase in world oil production after January 2011 that was mostly due to a surge of about 6 mb/d in light tight oil (LTO) production in the USA. This increased global oil production to just above 80 mb/d. Meanwhile, production in the rest of the world remained constant. The surge in the USA resulted in a sustained situation where supply was greater than demand globally, and this initiated a crash in the price of oil. The price of oil decreased from about \$100 per barrel in mid-2014 to less than \$30 per barrel in early 2016. Once the oil price declined, it was further enhanced and sustained by a decrease in demand due to a slowdown in the global economy. Because LTO is expensive to produce and was unprofitable after the price crash for the exploration and production companies, the surge in US production ended in about April 2015. Now, production of LTO in the USA is declining and global oil production is as well. New oil discoveries have reached a 70-year low, which does not bode well for future production. If the present patterns persist, it is unlikely that world oil pro- duction will exceed present US EIA oil production values of about 27–29 Gb/yr (equivalent to 75–80 mb/d) or (171–182 EJ/yr). It is unlikely that the demand for oilproduction required for CO2emissions in RCP8.5 andRCP6 will be met.
@article{murray_limitations_2016,
	title = {Limitations of {Oil} {Production} to the {IPCC} {Scenarios}: {The} {New} {Realities} of {US} and {Global} {Oil} {Production}},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {2366-0112, 2366-0120},
	shorttitle = {Limitations of {Oil} {Production} to the {IPCC} {Scenarios}},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41247-016-0013-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s41247-016-0013-9},
	abstract = {Many of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s   Special   Report   for   Emission   Scenarios   and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) projections (especially RCP  8.5  and 6) project  CO2 emissions  due to oil  consumption  from  now  to  2100  to  be  in  the  range  of 32–57 Gb/yr (87–156 mb/d) or (195–349 EJ/yr). World oil production  (crude  plus  condensate)  was  almost  constant from 2002 to 2011 at about 74±1 million barrels per day (mb/d) (US Energy Institute Agency, US EIA). There was an increase in world oil production after January 2011 that was mostly due to a surge of about 6 mb/d in light tight oil (LTO)  production  in  the  USA.  This  increased  global  oil production to just above 80 mb/d. Meanwhile, production in the rest of the world remained constant. The surge in the USA  resulted  in  a  sustained  situation  where  supply  was greater than demand globally, and this initiated a crash in the price of oil. The price of oil decreased from about \$100 per barrel in mid-2014 to less than \$30 per barrel in early 2016. Once the oil price declined, it was further enhanced and sustained by a decrease in demand due to a slowdown in  the  global  economy.  Because  LTO  is  expensive  to produce and was unprofitable after the price crash for the exploration  and  production  companies,  the  surge  in  US production ended in about April 2015. Now, production of LTO in the USA is declining and global oil production is as well.  New  oil  discoveries  have  reached  a  70-year  low, which  does  not  bode  well  for  future  production.  If  the present  patterns  persist,  it  is  unlikely  that  world  oil  pro- duction will exceed present US EIA oil production values of   about   27–29 Gb/yr   (equivalent   to   75–80   mb/d)   or (171–182  EJ/yr).  It  is  unlikely  that  the  demand  for  oilproduction  required  for  CO2emissions  in  RCP8.5  andRCP6 will be met.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-07-04},
	journal = {BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality},
	author = {Murray, James W.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {climate, collapse, energy, fossil, limits, oil},
	file = {Murray - 2016 - Limitations of Oil Production to the IPCC Scenario.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\7T5FKQD8\\Murray - 2016 - Limitations of Oil Production to the IPCC Scenario.pdf:application/pdf}
}
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