Is the Northern European hake, Merluccius merluccius, management procedure robust to the exclusion of reproductive dynamics?. Murua, H., Quincoces, I., Garcia, D., & Korta, M. FISHERIES RESEARCH, 104(1-3, SI):123-135, ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS, MAY, 2010.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
The purpose of the present study was to investigate the robustness of the management procedure (MP) of Northern European hake to alternative indices of reproductive potential (RP) based on our recently improved understanding of hake reproductive biology using a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework. MSE simulations allow the testing of the robustness of conventional management systems to uncertainties or different hypothesis about underlying population dynamics. For this purpose, four different reproductive potential (RP) indices of increasing biological complexity (i.e. Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) using constant maturity: SSB(MAT) adding variation on maturity, Female Spawning Biomass-FSB, and Total Egg Production-TEP) were estimated and tested. The inclusion of more biological information affected the perception of the population dynamics, the biological reference points (BRPs) as well as the perception of the stock in relation to those biological reference points. In this study, the probability of a wrong perception, i.e. the ``perceived'' population is above reference limits while the ``true'' population is overfished, was 13, 5, 3 and 3% for the different RP investigated in the time period between 1978 and 2008. This probability was around 0% in all cases studied for the projected period of 2009-2040. Our results show that (i) when including more information about reproductive biology in the simulation, the number of years below the BRPs are higher in the ``perceived'' population than in the ``true'' population, (ii) for the historic period the probability of a wrong perception is diminished when alternative reproductive indices are included when simulating both, `true' and `perceived' populations, and (iii) during the initial years of the projected period, although the perception of the population dynamics in relation to BRP is different between SSB(WG) scenario and alternative RP indices, the outcomes of the management advice of the SSB(WG) are more restrictive because the wrong perception is conservative, i.e. when ``true'' population is above B(pa) the SSB(WG) is below. Thus, it can be concluded that the MP for European hake is robust to the different hypothesis about alternative RP indices. However, the results of the present study also showed that for the historic period, when the population level was close to BRP level, the perception of the stocks status differs between alternative RP indices. Thus, it would be convenient to include the reproductive biology of the species in the Harvest Control Rules (HCR) and Long Term Management Plan (LTMP) of this stock, especially when the level of the stock is close to BRP level. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
@article{ ISI:000279045900014,
Author = {Murua, H. and Quincoces, I. and Garcia, D. and Korta, M.},
Title = {{Is the Northern European hake, Merluccius merluccius, management
   procedure robust to the exclusion of reproductive dynamics?}},
Journal = {{FISHERIES RESEARCH}},
Year = {{2010}},
Volume = {{104}},
Number = {{1-3, SI}},
Pages = {{123-135}},
Month = {{MAY}},
Abstract = {{The purpose of the present study was to investigate the robustness of
   the management procedure (MP) of Northern European hake to alternative
   indices of reproductive potential (RP) based on our recently improved
   understanding of hake reproductive biology using a Management Strategy
   Evaluation (MSE) framework. MSE simulations allow the testing of the
   robustness of conventional management systems to uncertainties or
   different hypothesis about underlying population dynamics. For this
   purpose, four different reproductive potential (RP) indices of
   increasing biological complexity (i.e. Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB)
   using constant maturity: SSB(MAT) adding variation on maturity, Female
   Spawning Biomass-FSB, and Total Egg Production-TEP) were estimated and
   tested. The inclusion of more biological information affected the
   perception of the population dynamics, the biological reference points
   (BRPs) as well as the perception of the stock in relation to those
   biological reference points. In this study, the probability of a wrong
   perception, i.e. the ``perceived{''} population is above reference
   limits while the ``true{''} population is overfished, was 13, 5, 3 and
   3\% for the different RP investigated in the time period between 1978
   and 2008. This probability was around 0\% in all cases studied for the
   projected period of 2009-2040. Our results show that (i) when including
   more information about reproductive biology in the simulation, the
   number of years below the BRPs are higher in the ``perceived{''}
   population than in the ``true{''} population, (ii) for the historic
   period the probability of a wrong perception is diminished when
   alternative reproductive indices are included when simulating both,
   `true' and `perceived' populations, and (iii) during the initial years
   of the projected period, although the perception of the population
   dynamics in relation to BRP is different between SSB(WG) scenario and
   alternative RP indices, the outcomes of the management advice of the
   SSB(WG) are more restrictive because the wrong perception is
   conservative, i.e. when ``true{''} population is above B(pa) the SSB(WG)
   is below. Thus, it can be concluded that the MP for European hake is
   robust to the different hypothesis about alternative RP indices.
   However, the results of the present study also showed that for the
   historic period, when the population level was close to BRP level, the
   perception of the stocks status differs between alternative RP indices.
   Thus, it would be convenient to include the reproductive biology of the
   species in the Harvest Control Rules (HCR) and Long Term Management Plan
   (LTMP) of this stock, especially when the level of the stock is close to
   BRP level. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}},
Publisher = {{ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV}},
Address = {{PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Murua, H (Reprint Author), AZTI Tecnalia, Herrera Koia, Portu Alde Z-G, Pasaia 20110, Spain.
   Murua, H.; Korta, M., AZTI Tecnalia, Herrera Koia, Pasaia 20110, Spain.
   Quincoces, I.; Garcia, D., AZTI Tecnalia, Sukarrieta, Spain.}},
DOI = {{10.1016/j.fishres.2010.03.018}},
ISSN = {{0165-7836}},
Keywords = {{European hake; Management Strategy Evaluation; Reproductive potential;
   Reproductive biology; Biological reference points}},
Keywords-Plus = {{COD GADUS-MORHUA; STOCK-RECRUITMENT RELATIONSHIP; FISHERIES MANAGEMENT;
   POPULATION-STRUCTURE; STRATEGY EVALUATION; REFERENCE POINTS; BATCH
   FECUNDITY; AGE ESTIMATION; EGG-PRODUCTION; SEA PLAICE}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries}},
Author-Email = {{hmurua@azti.es}},
Funding-Acknowledgement = {{EU {[}01825, 022717]; COMMIT (Creation of Multi-annual Management Plans
   for Commitment {[}502289]; Department of Agriculture and Fisheries of
   the Basque Country government}},
Funding-Text = {{This research was partially funded by the EU FP 5 project
   RASER(Reproduction and Stock Evaluation for Recovery project, no. 01825)
   for biological data, the EU FP 6 project UNCOVER (Understanding the
   mechanisms of stock recovery, no. 022717), the EU FP 6 projects EFIMAS
   (Operational Evaluation Tools for Fishery Management Options, no.
   502516) and COMMIT (Creation of Multi-annual Management Plans for
   Commitment, no. 502289) for the development of the MSE algorithm, and
   from the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries of the Basque Country
   government. It does not necessarily reflect its views and in no ways
   anticipates the European Commission's future policy in this area. Our
   gratitude is extended to all personnel involved in the collection and
   preparation of data used in this work and to the COST Action FA0601,
   ``Fish Reproduction and Fisheries{''} (FRESH) and the NAFO Working Group
   on Reproductive Potential. Thanks also to Paul de Bruyn for editing the
   English. This paper is contribution no. (491) from AZTI-Tecnalia (Marine
   Research Department).}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{56}},
Times-Cited = {{14}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{2}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{6}},
Journal-ISO = {{Fish Res.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{614HJ}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000279045900014}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}

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