Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Griibler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E. L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., & Dadi, Z. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [link]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
[Excerpt: Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations] In summary, the SRES scenarios [SRES is for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] lead to the following findings: [::] Alternative combinations of driving forces can lead to similar levels and structure of energy and land-use patterns, as illustrated by different scenarios and groups. Hence, even for a given scenario outcome (e.g., in terms of GHG emissions) there are alternative combinations of driving forces and pathways that could lead to that outcome. For instance, significant global changes could result from a scenario of high population growth, even if per capita incomes rise only modestly, as well as from a scenario in which a rapid demographic transition (to low population levels) coincides with high rates of income growth and affluence. [::] Important possibilities for further bifurcations in future development trends exist within one scenario family, even when particular values are adopted for the important scenario driving force variables to illustrate a particular development path. The technology scenario groups in the A1 family illustrate such alternative development paths with similar quantifications of the main driving forces. [::] Emissions profiles are dynamic across the range of SRES scenarios. They portray trend reversals and indicate possible emissions crossover among different scenarios. They do not represent mere extensions of continuous increase of GHGs and SO2 emissions into the future. This more complex pattern of future emissions across the range of SRES scenarios, time periods, world regions, and sectors reflects recent scenario literature. [::] Describing potential future developments involves inherent ambiguities and uncertainties. One and only one possible development path (as alluded to, for instance, in concepts such as "business-as-usual scenario") simply does not exist alone. And even for each alternative development path described by any given scenario, there are numerous combinations of driving forces and numeric values that can be consistent with a particular scenario description. The numeric precision of any model result should not distract from the basic fact that uncertainty abounds. However, the multi-model approach increases the value of the SRES scenario set, since uncertainties in the choice of model input assumptions can be separated more explicitly from the specific model behavior and related modeling uncertainties. [::] Any scenario has subjective elements and is open to various interpretations. While the writing team as a whole has no preference for any of the scenarios, and has no judgment as to the probability or desirability of different scenarios, the open process and initial reactions to draft versions of this report show that individuals and interest groups do have such judgments. The writing team hopes that this will stimulate an open discussion in the policymaking arena about potential futures and choices that can be made in the context of climate change response. For the scientific community, the SRES scenario exercise has led to the identification of a number of recommendations for future research that can further increase the understanding of potential developments of socio-economic driving forces and their interactions, and the associated GHG emissions. A summary of the main findings and recommendations for potential users of the SRES scenarios is given in Boxes TS-4 and Box TS-5. The writing teams' suggestions for consideration by the IPCC are summarized in Box TS-6. [::] Finally, the writing team believes that the SRES scenarios largely fulfill all specifications set out in Chapter 1. To support reproducibility, more detailed information than can be included in this report will be made available by individual modeling groups and members of the writing team through other means, such as web sites, peer-reviewed literature, or background documentation, if additional resources can be made available. [] [...]
@book{nakicenovicSpecialReportEmissions2000,
  title = {Special Report on Emissions Scenarios},
  author = {Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Alcamo, Joseph and Davis, Gerald and de Vries, Bert and Fenhann, Joergen and Gaffin, Stuart and Gregory, Kermeth and Griibler, Amulf and Jung, Tae Y. and Kram, Tom and La Rovere, Emilio L. and Michaelis, Laurie and Mori, Shunsuke and Morita, Tsuneyuki and Pepper, William and Pitcher, Hugh and Price, Lynn and Riahi, Keywan and Roehrl, Alexander and Rogner, Hans-Holger and Sankovski, Alexei and Schlesinger, Michael and Shukla, Priyadarshi and Smith, Steven and Swart, Robert and van Rooijen, Sascha and Victor, Nadejda and Dadi, Zhou},
  editor = {Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Swart, Rob},
  date = {2000},
  publisher = {{Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14174473},
  abstract = {[Excerpt: Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations] In summary, the SRES scenarios [SRES is for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] lead to the following findings:

[::] Alternative combinations of driving forces can lead to similar levels and structure of energy and land-use patterns, as illustrated by different scenarios and groups. Hence, even for a given scenario outcome (e.g., in terms of GHG emissions) there are alternative combinations of driving forces and pathways that could lead to that outcome. For instance, significant global changes could result from a scenario of high population growth, even if per capita incomes rise only modestly, as well as from a scenario in which a rapid demographic transition (to low population levels) coincides with high rates of income growth and affluence.

[::] Important possibilities for further bifurcations in future development trends exist within one scenario family, even when particular values are adopted for the important scenario driving force variables to illustrate a particular development path. The technology scenario groups in the A1 family illustrate such alternative development paths with similar quantifications of the main driving forces.

[::] Emissions profiles are dynamic across the range of SRES scenarios. They portray trend reversals and indicate possible emissions crossover among different scenarios. They do not represent mere extensions of continuous increase of GHGs and SO2 emissions into the future. This more complex pattern of future emissions across the range of SRES scenarios, time periods, world regions, and sectors reflects recent scenario literature.

[::] Describing potential future developments involves inherent ambiguities and uncertainties. One and only one possible development path (as alluded to, for instance, in concepts such as "business-as-usual scenario") simply does not exist alone. And even for each alternative development path described by any given scenario, there are numerous combinations of driving forces and numeric values that can be consistent with a particular scenario description. The numeric precision of any model result should not distract from the basic fact that uncertainty abounds. However, the multi-model approach increases the value of the SRES scenario set, since uncertainties in the choice of model input assumptions can be separated more explicitly from the specific model behavior and related modeling uncertainties.

[::] Any scenario has subjective elements and is open to various interpretations. While the writing team as a whole has no preference for any of the scenarios, and has no judgment as to the probability or desirability of different scenarios, the open process and initial reactions to draft versions of this report show that individuals and interest groups do have such judgments. The writing team hopes that this will stimulate an open discussion in the policymaking arena about potential futures and choices that can be made in the context of climate change response. For the scientific community, the SRES scenario exercise has led to the identification of a number of recommendations for future research that can further increase the understanding of potential developments of socio-economic driving forces and their interactions, and the associated GHG emissions. A summary of the main findings and recommendations for potential users of the SRES scenarios is given in Boxes TS-4 and Box TS-5. The writing teams' suggestions for consideration by the IPCC are summarized in Box TS-6.

[::] Finally, the writing team believes that the SRES scenarios largely fulfill all specifications set out in Chapter 1. To support reproducibility, more detailed information than can be included in this report will be made available by individual modeling groups and members of the writing team through other means, such as web sites, peer-reviewed literature, or background documentation, if additional resources can be made available.

[] [...]},
  isbn = {0 521 80493 0},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14174473,climate-change,climate-projections,ipcc,ipcc-scenarios,reference-manual},
  options = {useprefix=true}
}
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