Critical Fluctuations as an Early-Warning Signal for Sudden Gains and Losses in Patients Receiving Psychotherapy for Mood Disorders. Olthof, M., Hasselman, F., Strunk, G., van Rooij, M., Aas, B., Helmich, M., A., Schiepek, G., & Lichtwarck-Aschoff, A. CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE, 8(1):25-35, 1, 2020.
abstract   bibtex   
Whereas sudden gains and losses (large shifts in symptom severity) in patients receiving psychotherapy appear abrupt and hence may seem unexpected, hypotheses from complex-systems theory suggest that sudden gains and losses are actually preceded by certain early-warning signals (EWSs). We tested whether EWSs in patients' daily self-ratings of the psychotherapeutic process predicted future sudden gains and losses. Data were collected from 328 patients receiving psychotherapy for mood disorders who completed daily self-ratings about their therapeutic process using the Therapy Process Questionnaire (TPQ). Sudden gains and losses were classified from the Problem Intensity scale of the TPQ. The other items of the TPQ were used to compute the EWSs. EWSs predicted an increased probability for sudden gains and losses in a 4-day predictive window. These results show that EWSs can be used for real-time prediction of sudden gains and losses in clinical practice.
@article{
 title = {Critical Fluctuations as an Early-Warning Signal for Sudden Gains and Losses in Patients Receiving Psychotherapy for Mood Disorders},
 type = {article},
 year = {2020},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 pages = {25-35},
 volume = {8},
 month = {1},
 id = {7816f469-9afd-3608-b287-e43eba9ec395},
 created = {2020-12-07T13:41:32.114Z},
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 profile_id = {98ae0591-46ce-3630-b7de-f544a0f36aa6},
 group_id = {f65d9ebf-2da1-380e-a767-fa6cf8010b5f},
 last_modified = {2020-12-07T13:41:32.114Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {false},
 confirmed = {true},
 hidden = {false},
 citation_key = {ISI:000489458100001},
 source_type = {article},
 private_publication = {false},
 abstract = {Whereas sudden gains and losses (large shifts in symptom severity) in
patients receiving psychotherapy appear abrupt and hence may seem
unexpected, hypotheses from complex-systems theory suggest that sudden
gains and losses are actually preceded by certain early-warning signals
(EWSs). We tested whether EWSs in patients' daily self-ratings of the
psychotherapeutic process predicted future sudden gains and losses. Data
were collected from 328 patients receiving psychotherapy for mood
disorders who completed daily self-ratings about their therapeutic
process using the Therapy Process Questionnaire (TPQ). Sudden gains and
losses were classified from the Problem Intensity scale of the TPQ. The
other items of the TPQ were used to compute the EWSs. EWSs predicted an
increased probability for sudden gains and losses in a 4-day predictive
window. These results show that EWSs can be used for real-time
prediction of sudden gains and losses in clinical practice.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Olthof, Merlijn and Hasselman, Fred and Strunk, Guido and van Rooij, Marieke and Aas, Benjamin and Helmich, Marieke A and Schiepek, Guenter and Lichtwarck-Aschoff, Anna},
 journal = {CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE},
 number = {1}
}
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