Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Park Williams, A., Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Swetnam, T. W., Rauscher, S. A., Seager, R., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., Dean, J. S., Cook, E. R., Gangodagamage, C., Cai, M., & McDowell, N. G. Nature Clim. Change, 3(3):292--297, Nature Publishing Group, September, 2013. ![Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.
@article{citeulike:11354245,
abstract = {As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index ({FDSI}) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing {AD} 1000–2007. The {FDSI} is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82\% of the {FDSI} variability. Correspondence between the {FDSI} and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the {FDSI} as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.},
author = {Park Williams, A. and Allen, Craig D. and Macalady, Alison K. and Griffin, Daniel and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Meko, David M. and Swetnam, Thomas W. and Rauscher, Sara A. and Seager, Richard and Grissino-Mayer, Henri D. and Dean, Jeffrey S. and Cook, Edward R. and Gangodagamage, Chandana and Cai, Michael and McDowell, Nate G.},
citeulike-article-id = {11354245},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
day = {30},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1693},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
keywords = {climate-change, climate-projections, droughts, forest-resources, global-warming, temperature},
month = sep,
number = {3},
pages = {292--297},
posted-at = {2012-10-02 23:14:36},
priority = {2},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
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