Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems. Payne, M. R., Barange, M., Cheung, W. L., MacKenzie, B. R., Batchelder, H. P., Cormon, X., Eddy, T. D., Fernandes, J. A., Hollowed, A. B., Jones, M. C., Link, J. S., Neubauer, P., Ortiz, I., Queiros, A. M., & Paula, J. R. ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 73(5):1272-1282, OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND, MAY-JUN, 2016. 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans, PICES, Santos, BRAZIL, MAR, 2015doi abstract bibtex Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. Weconclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.
@article{ ISI:000378640100002,
Author = {Payne, Mark R. and Barange, Manuel and Cheung, WilliamW. L. and
MacKenzie, Brian R. and Batchelder, Harold P. and Cormon, Xochitl and
Eddy, Tyler D. and Fernandes, Jose A. and Hollowed, Anne B. and Jones,
Miranda C. and Link, Jason S. and Neubauer, Philipp and Ortiz, Ivonne
and Queiros, Ana M. and Paula, Jose Ricardo},
Title = {{Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2016}},
Volume = {{73}},
Number = {{5}},
Pages = {{1272-1282}},
Month = {{MAY-JUN}},
Note = {{3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the
World's Oceans, PICES, Santos, BRAZIL, MAR, 2015}},
Organization = {{ICES; IOC; IO USP}},
Abstract = {{Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a
key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are
inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and
communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk
associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness.
We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine
science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by
breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii)
initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric
uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type,
we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and
quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine
scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty
sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated
with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small
field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between
subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of
uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated
explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on
the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. Weconclude that all parts of marine
science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly
concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of
uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point
where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our
projections.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article; Proceedings Paper}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Payne, MR (Reprint Author), Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Ctr Ocean Life, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.
Payne, Mark R.; MacKenzie, Brian R., Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Ctr Ocean Life, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.
Barange, Manuel; Fernandes, Jose A.; Queiros, Ana M., Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England.
Cheung, WilliamW. L.; Jones, Miranda C., Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans \& Fisheries, AERL, Changing Ocean Res Unit, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
Batchelder, Harold P., North Pacific Marine Sci Org PICES, 9860 West Saanich Rd, Sidney, BC V8L 4B2, Canada.
Cormon, Xochitl, IFREMER, Channel \& North Sea Fisheries Res Unit, 150 Quai Gambetta,BP 699, F-62321 Boulogne, France.
Eddy, Tyler D., Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, 1355 Oxford St, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada.
Hollowed, Anne B., NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.
Jones, Miranda C., Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England.
Link, Jason S., NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, 166 Water St, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA.
Neubauer, Philipp, Dragonfly Data Sci, POB 27535, Wellington 6141, New Zealand.
Ortiz, Ivonne, Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere \& Oceans, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
Paula, Jose Ricardo, Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Lab Maritimo Guia, MARE Marine \& Environm Sci Ctr, Ave Nossa Senhora do Cabo 939, P-2750374 Cascais, Portugal.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsv231}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
EISSN = {{1095-9289}},
Keywords = {{climate change; initialization uncertainty; parametric uncertainty;
projections; scenario uncertainty; structural uncertainty; uncertainty}},
Keywords-Plus = {{COUPLED BIOLOGICAL/PHYSICAL MODELS; POPULATION BIOLOGY; SKILL
ASSESSMENT; NORTH-SEA; MULTIMODEL APPROACH; STOCK ASSESSMENT;
TRADE-OFFS; FOOD-WEB; FISHERIES; STRATEGY}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{mpay@aqua.dtu.dk}},
ResearcherID-Numbers = {{Payne, Mark/C-6844-2008
Fernandes, Jose A./B-8985-2009
}},
ORCID-Numbers = {{Payne, Mark/0000-0001-5795-2481
Fernandes, Jose A./0000-0003-4677-6077
Queiros, Ana/0000-0002-7067-3177
Paula, Jose Ricardo/0000-0002-1729-7256}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{89}},
Times-Cited = {{10}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{7}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{26}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{DP6WL}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000378640100002}},
OA = {{No}},
ESI-Highly-Cited-Paper = {{Y}},
ESI-Hot-Paper = {{N}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}
Downloads: 0
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Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. Weconclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.","publisher":"OXFORD UNIV PRESS","address":"GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND","language":"English","affiliation":"Payne, MR (Reprint Author), Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Ctr Ocean Life, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. Payne, Mark R.; MacKenzie, Brian R., Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Ctr Ocean Life, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. Barange, Manuel; Fernandes, Jose A.; Queiros, Ana M., Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England. Cheung, WilliamW. L.; Jones, Miranda C., Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, AERL, Changing Ocean Res Unit, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. Batchelder, Harold P., North Pacific Marine Sci Org PICES, 9860 West Saanich Rd, Sidney, BC V8L 4B2, Canada. Cormon, Xochitl, IFREMER, Channel & North Sea Fisheries Res Unit, 150 Quai Gambetta,BP 699, F-62321 Boulogne, France. Eddy, Tyler D., Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, 1355 Oxford St, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada. Hollowed, Anne B., NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA. Jones, Miranda C., Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. Link, Jason S., NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, 166 Water St, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. Neubauer, Philipp, Dragonfly Data Sci, POB 27535, Wellington 6141, New Zealand. Ortiz, Ivonne, Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Oceans, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Paula, Jose Ricardo, Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Lab Maritimo Guia, MARE Marine & Environm Sci Ctr, Ave Nossa Senhora do Cabo 939, P-2750374 Cascais, Portugal.","doi":"10.1093/icesjms/fsv231","issn":"1054-3139","eissn":"1095-9289","keywords":"climate change; initialization uncertainty; parametric uncertainty; projections; scenario uncertainty; structural uncertainty; uncertainty","keywords-plus":"COUPLED BIOLOGICAL/PHYSICAL MODELS; POPULATION BIOLOGY; SKILL ASSESSMENT; NORTH-SEA; MULTIMODEL APPROACH; STOCK ASSESSMENT; TRADE-OFFS; FOOD-WEB; FISHERIES; STRATEGY","research-areas":"Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography","web-of-science-categories":"Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography","author-email":"mpay@aqua.dtu.dk","researcherid-numbers":"Payne, Mark/C-6844-2008 Fernandes, Jose A./B-8985-2009 ","orcid-numbers":"Payne, Mark/0000-0001-5795-2481 Fernandes, Jose A./0000-0003-4677-6077 Queiros, Ana/0000-0002-7067-3177 Paula, Jose Ricardo/0000-0002-1729-7256","number-of-cited-references":"89","times-cited":"10","usage-count-last-180-days":"7","usage-count-since-2013":"26","journal-iso":"ICES J. 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L. and\n MacKenzie, Brian R. and Batchelder, Harold P. and Cormon, Xochitl and\n Eddy, Tyler D. and Fernandes, Jose A. and Hollowed, Anne B. and Jones,\n Miranda C. and Link, Jason S. and Neubauer, Philipp and Ortiz, Ivonne\n and Queiros, Ana M. and Paula, Jose Ricardo},\nTitle = {{Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems}},\nJournal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},\nYear = {{2016}},\nVolume = {{73}},\nNumber = {{5}},\nPages = {{1272-1282}},\nMonth = {{MAY-JUN}},\nNote = {{3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the\n World's Oceans, PICES, Santos, BRAZIL, MAR, 2015}},\nOrganization = {{ICES; IOC; IO USP}},\nAbstract = {{Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a\n key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are\n inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and\n communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk\n associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness.\n We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine\n science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by\n breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii)\n initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric\n uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type,\n we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and\n quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine\n scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty\n sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated\n with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small\n field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between\n subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of\n uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated\n explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on\n the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. Weconclude that all parts of marine\n science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly\n concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of\n uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point\n where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our\n projections.}},\nPublisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},\nAddress = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},\nType = {{Article; Proceedings Paper}},\nLanguage = {{English}},\nAffiliation = {{Payne, MR (Reprint Author), Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Ctr Ocean Life, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.\n Payne, Mark R.; MacKenzie, Brian R., Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Ctr Ocean Life, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark.\n Barange, Manuel; Fernandes, Jose A.; Queiros, Ana M., Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England.\n Cheung, WilliamW. L.; Jones, Miranda C., Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans \\& Fisheries, AERL, Changing Ocean Res Unit, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.\n Batchelder, Harold P., North Pacific Marine Sci Org PICES, 9860 West Saanich Rd, Sidney, BC V8L 4B2, Canada.\n Cormon, Xochitl, IFREMER, Channel \\& North Sea Fisheries Res Unit, 150 Quai Gambetta,BP 699, F-62321 Boulogne, France.\n Eddy, Tyler D., Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, 1355 Oxford St, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada.\n Hollowed, Anne B., NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA.\n Jones, Miranda C., Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England.\n Link, Jason S., NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, 166 Water St, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA.\n Neubauer, Philipp, Dragonfly Data Sci, POB 27535, Wellington 6141, New Zealand.\n Ortiz, Ivonne, Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere \\& Oceans, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.\n Paula, Jose Ricardo, Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Lab Maritimo Guia, MARE Marine \\& Environm Sci Ctr, Ave Nossa Senhora do Cabo 939, P-2750374 Cascais, Portugal.}},\nDOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsv231}},\nISSN = {{1054-3139}},\nEISSN = {{1095-9289}},\nKeywords = {{climate change; initialization uncertainty; parametric uncertainty;\n projections; scenario uncertainty; structural uncertainty; uncertainty}},\nKeywords-Plus = {{COUPLED BIOLOGICAL/PHYSICAL MODELS; POPULATION BIOLOGY; SKILL\n ASSESSMENT; NORTH-SEA; MULTIMODEL APPROACH; STOCK ASSESSMENT;\n TRADE-OFFS; FOOD-WEB; FISHERIES; STRATEGY}},\nResearch-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \\& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},\nWeb-of-Science-Categories = {{Fisheries; Marine \\& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},\nAuthor-Email = {{mpay@aqua.dtu.dk}},\nResearcherID-Numbers = {{Payne, Mark/C-6844-2008\n Fernandes, Jose A./B-8985-2009\n }},\nORCID-Numbers = {{Payne, Mark/0000-0001-5795-2481\n Fernandes, Jose A./0000-0003-4677-6077\n Queiros, Ana/0000-0002-7067-3177\n Paula, Jose Ricardo/0000-0002-1729-7256}},\nNumber-of-Cited-References = {{89}},\nTimes-Cited = {{10}},\nUsage-Count-Last-180-days = {{7}},\nUsage-Count-Since-2013 = {{26}},\nJournal-ISO = {{ICES J. 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