Recruitment in a changing environment: the 2000s North Sea herring recruitment failure. Payne, M. R., Hatfield, E. M. C., Dickey-Collas, M., Falkenhaug, T., Gallego, A., Groeger, J., Licandro, P., Llope, M., Munk, P., Rockmann, C., Schmidt, J. O., & Nash, R. D. M. ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 66(2):272-277, OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND, MAR, 2009. doi abstract bibtex Environmentally induced change appears to be impacting the recruitment of North Sea herring (Clupea harengus). Despite simultaneously having a large adult population, historically low exploitation, and Marine Stewardship Council accreditation (implying sustainability), there have been an unprecedented 6 sequential years of poor juvenile production (recruitment). Analysis suggests that the poor recruitment arises during the larval overwintering phase, with recent survival rates greatly reduced. Contemporary warming of the North Sea has caused significant changes in the plankton community, and a recently identified regime shift around 2000 shows close temporal agreement with the reduced larval survival. It is, therefore, possible that we are observing the first consequences of this planktonic change for higher trophic levels. There is no indication of a recovery in recruitment in the short term. Fishing mortality is currently outside the agreed management plan, and forecasts show a high risk of the stock moving outside safe biological limits soon, potentially precipitating another collapse of the stock. However, bringing the realized fishing mortality back in line with the management plan would likely alleviate the problem. This illustrates again that recruitment is influenced by more than just spawning-stock biomass, and that changes in other factors can be of equal, or even greater, importance. In such dynamically changing environments, recent management success does not necessarily guarantee future sustainability.
@article{ ISI:000263164000006,
Author = {Payne, Mark R. and Hatfield, Emma M. C. and Dickey-Collas, Mark and
Falkenhaug, Tone and Gallego, Alejandro and Groeger, Joachim and
Licandro, Priscilla and Llope, Marcos and Munk, Peter and Rockmann,
Christine and Schmidt, Jorn O. and Nash, Richard D. M.},
Title = {{Recruitment in a changing environment: the 2000s North Sea herring
recruitment failure}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2009}},
Volume = {{66}},
Number = {{2}},
Pages = {{272-277}},
Month = {{MAR}},
Abstract = {{Environmentally induced change appears to be impacting the recruitment
of North Sea herring (Clupea harengus). Despite simultaneously having a
large adult population, historically low exploitation, and Marine
Stewardship Council accreditation (implying sustainability), there have
been an unprecedented 6 sequential years of poor juvenile production
(recruitment). Analysis suggests that the poor recruitment arises during
the larval overwintering phase, with recent survival rates greatly
reduced. Contemporary warming of the North Sea has caused significant
changes in the plankton community, and a recently identified regime
shift around 2000 shows close temporal agreement with the reduced larval
survival. It is, therefore, possible that we are observing the first
consequences of this planktonic change for higher trophic levels. There
is no indication of a recovery in recruitment in the short term. Fishing
mortality is currently outside the agreed management plan, and forecasts
show a high risk of the stock moving outside safe biological limits
soon, potentially precipitating another collapse of the stock. However,
bringing the realized fishing mortality back in line with the management
plan would likely alleviate the problem. This illustrates again that
recruitment is influenced by more than just spawning-stock biomass, and
that changes in other factors can be of equal, or even greater,
importance. In such dynamically changing environments, recent management
success does not necessarily guarantee future sustainability.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Payne, MR (Reprint Author), Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Charlottenlund 2920, Denmark.
Payne, Mark R., Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Charlottenlund 2920, Denmark.
Hatfield, Emma M. C.; Gallego, Alejandro, FRS Marine Lab, Aberdeen AB11 9DB, Scotland.
Dickey-Collas, Mark; Rockmann, Christine, Wageningen IMARES, NL-1970 AB Ijmuiden, Netherlands.
Falkenhaug, Tone, Inst Marine Res, N-4817 Flodevigen, His, Norway.
Groeger, Joachim, Inst Sea Fisheries, Fed Res Inst Rural Areas Forestry \& Fisheries, D-22767 Hamburg, Germany.
Licandro, Priscilla, Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England.
Llope, Marcos, Univ Oslo, Dept Biol, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
Munk, Peter, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Afd Havokol \& Akvakultur, Charlottenlund 2920, Denmark.
Schmidt, Jorn O., Leibniz Inst Marine Sci, IFM, GEOMAR, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
Nash, Richard D. M., Inst Marine Res, N-5817 Bergen, Norway.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsn211}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
Keywords = {{environmental change; North Sea herring; recruitment; regime shift;
sustainability}},
Keywords-Plus = {{DYNAMICS; MANAGEMENT; FISHES}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{mpa@aqua.dtu.dk}},
ResearcherID-Numbers = {{Schmidt, Jorn/A-7714-2008
Payne, Mark/C-6844-2008
Dickey-Collas, Mark/A-8036-2008
}},
ORCID-Numbers = {{Schmidt, Jorn/0000-0002-4420-6532
Payne, Mark/0000-0001-5795-2481
Llope, Marcos/0000-0003-1408-6848}},
Funding-Acknowledgement = {{EU {[}44133]}},
Funding-Text = {{This manuscript was produced by the Study Group on Recruitment
Variability in North Sea Planktivorous Fish (SGRECVAP), formed under the
auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
(ICES). The group met to discuss the causes underlying the series of
recruitment failures in North Sea herring, Norway pout, and sandeel
since 2001. The authors acknowledge the role of ICES in assembling the
group. The compilation of this manuscript was partially supported by the
EU 6th Framework project RECLAIM (contract 44133).}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{18}},
Times-Cited = {{61}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{0}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{33}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{404OX}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000263164000006}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}
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Despite simultaneously having a large adult population, historically low exploitation, and Marine Stewardship Council accreditation (implying sustainability), there have been an unprecedented 6 sequential years of poor juvenile production (recruitment). Analysis suggests that the poor recruitment arises during the larval overwintering phase, with recent survival rates greatly reduced. Contemporary warming of the North Sea has caused significant changes in the plankton community, and a recently identified regime shift around 2000 shows close temporal agreement with the reduced larval survival. It is, therefore, possible that we are observing the first consequences of this planktonic change for higher trophic levels. There is no indication of a recovery in recruitment in the short term. 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The group met to discuss the causes underlying the series of recruitment failures in North Sea herring, Norway pout, and sandeel since 2001. The authors acknowledge the role of ICES in assembling the group. The compilation of this manuscript was partially supported by the EU 6th Framework project RECLAIM (contract 44133).","number-of-cited-references":"18","times-cited":"61","usage-count-last-180-days":"0","usage-count-since-2013":"33","journal-iso":"ICES J. Mar. Sci.","doc-delivery-number":"404OX","unique-id":"ISI:000263164000006","oa":"No","da":"2017-08-17","bibtex":"@article{ ISI:000263164000006,\nAuthor = {Payne, Mark R. and Hatfield, Emma M. C. and Dickey-Collas, Mark and\n Falkenhaug, Tone and Gallego, Alejandro and Groeger, Joachim and\n Licandro, Priscilla and Llope, Marcos and Munk, Peter and Rockmann,\n Christine and Schmidt, Jorn O. and Nash, Richard D. M.},\nTitle = {{Recruitment in a changing environment: the 2000s North Sea herring\n recruitment failure}},\nJournal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},\nYear = {{2009}},\nVolume = {{66}},\nNumber = {{2}},\nPages = {{272-277}},\nMonth = {{MAR}},\nAbstract = {{Environmentally induced change appears to be impacting the recruitment\n of North Sea herring (Clupea harengus). Despite simultaneously having a\n large adult population, historically low exploitation, and Marine\n Stewardship Council accreditation (implying sustainability), there have\n been an unprecedented 6 sequential years of poor juvenile production\n (recruitment). Analysis suggests that the poor recruitment arises during\n the larval overwintering phase, with recent survival rates greatly\n reduced. Contemporary warming of the North Sea has caused significant\n changes in the plankton community, and a recently identified regime\n shift around 2000 shows close temporal agreement with the reduced larval\n survival. It is, therefore, possible that we are observing the first\n consequences of this planktonic change for higher trophic levels. There\n is no indication of a recovery in recruitment in the short term. Fishing\n mortality is currently outside the agreed management plan, and forecasts\n show a high risk of the stock moving outside safe biological limits\n soon, potentially precipitating another collapse of the stock. However,\n bringing the realized fishing mortality back in line with the management\n plan would likely alleviate the problem. This illustrates again that\n recruitment is influenced by more than just spawning-stock biomass, and\n that changes in other factors can be of equal, or even greater,\n importance. 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C.; Gallego, Alejandro, FRS Marine Lab, Aberdeen AB11 9DB, Scotland.\n Dickey-Collas, Mark; Rockmann, Christine, Wageningen IMARES, NL-1970 AB Ijmuiden, Netherlands.\n Falkenhaug, Tone, Inst Marine Res, N-4817 Flodevigen, His, Norway.\n Groeger, Joachim, Inst Sea Fisheries, Fed Res Inst Rural Areas Forestry \\& Fisheries, D-22767 Hamburg, Germany.\n Licandro, Priscilla, Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England.\n Llope, Marcos, Univ Oslo, Dept Biol, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.\n Munk, Peter, Natl Inst Aquat Resources DTU Aqua, Afd Havokol \\& Akvakultur, Charlottenlund 2920, Denmark.\n Schmidt, Jorn O., Leibniz Inst Marine Sci, IFM, GEOMAR, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.\n Nash, Richard D. 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