Towards a different attitude to uncertainty. Pe'er, G., Mihoub, J., Dislich, C., & Matsinos, Y. Nature Conservation, 8:95–114, 2014. ![Towards a different attitude to uncertainty [pdf]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg "pdf")
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Paper doi abstract bibtex The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the$\$nperspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the$\$ncurrent rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as$\$nanticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics$\$ndue to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even$\$nimpossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge$\$n(epistemic uncertainty) and societal responses to it. Under these$\$nconditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with$\$nuncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an$\$noverall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even$\$nembraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be$\$ncounterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence,$\$nignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or$\$nirresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by$\$nexternalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that$\$nuncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in$\$nknowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies$\$nflexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of$\$nthe public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and$\$ncommunication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on$\$nuncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative$\$nattitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude$\$nacross scales - from adaptive management at the local scale, to the$\$nevolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and$\$nEcosystem Services (IPBES) at the global level.
@Article{Peer2014,
author = {Pe'er, Guy and Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste and Dislich, Claudia and Matsinos, Yiannis},
title = {{Towards a different attitude to uncertainty}},
journal = {Nature Conservation},
year = {2014},
volume = {8},
pages = {95--114},
issn = {1314-3301},
url_pdf = {http://uni-goettingen.de/de/document/download/68773dea6c714962f17de86b8936b01a.pdf/Peer%20et%20al._2014_Nature%20Conservation_Towards%20a%20different%20attitude%20to%20uncertainty.pdf},
abstract = {The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the$\backslash$nperspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the$\backslash$ncurrent rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as$\backslash$nanticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics$\backslash$ndue to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even$\backslash$nimpossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge$\backslash$n(epistemic uncertainty) and societal responses to it. Under these$\backslash$nconditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with$\backslash$nuncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an$\backslash$noverall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even$\backslash$nembraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be$\backslash$ncounterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence,$\backslash$nignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or$\backslash$nirresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by$\backslash$nexternalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that$\backslash$nuncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in$\backslash$nknowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies$\backslash$nflexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of$\backslash$nthe public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and$\backslash$ncommunication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on$\backslash$nuncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative$\backslash$nattitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude$\backslash$nacross scales - from adaptive management at the local scale, to the$\backslash$nevolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and$\backslash$nEcosystem Services (IPBES) at the global level.},
comment = {public},
doi = {10.3897/natureconservation.8.8388},
isbn = {1314-6947
1314-3301},
url = {http://natureconservation.pensoft.net/articles.php?id=4143},
}
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However, the$\\$ncurrent rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as$\\$nanticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics$\\$ndue to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even$\\$nimpossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge$\\$n(epistemic uncertainty) and societal responses to it. Under these$\\$nconditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with$\\$nuncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an$\\$noverall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even$\\$nembraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be$\\$ncounterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence,$\\$nignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or$\\$nirresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by$\\$nexternalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that$\\$nuncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in$\\$nknowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies$\\$nflexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of$\\$nthe public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and$\\$ncommunication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on$\\$nuncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative$\\$nattitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude$\\$nacross scales - from adaptive management at the local scale, to the$\\$nevolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and$\\$nEcosystem Services (IPBES) at the global level.","comment":"public","doi":"10.3897/natureconservation.8.8388","isbn":"1314-6947 1314-3301","url":"http://natureconservation.pensoft.net/articles.php?id=4143","bibtex":"@Article{Peer2014,\r\n author = {Pe'er, Guy and Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste and Dislich, Claudia and Matsinos, Yiannis},\r\n title = {{Towards a different attitude to uncertainty}},\r\n journal = {Nature Conservation},\r\n year = {2014},\r\n volume = {8},\r\n pages = {95--114},\r\n issn = {1314-3301},\r\n url_pdf = {http://uni-goettingen.de/de/document/download/68773dea6c714962f17de86b8936b01a.pdf/Peer%20et%20al._2014_Nature%20Conservation_Towards%20a%20different%20attitude%20to%20uncertainty.pdf},\r\n abstract = {The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the$\\backslash$nperspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the$\\backslash$ncurrent rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as$\\backslash$nanticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics$\\backslash$ndue to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even$\\backslash$nimpossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge$\\backslash$n(epistemic uncertainty) and societal responses to it. Under these$\\backslash$nconditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with$\\backslash$nuncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an$\\backslash$noverall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even$\\backslash$nembraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be$\\backslash$ncounterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence,$\\backslash$nignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or$\\backslash$nirresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by$\\backslash$nexternalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that$\\backslash$nuncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in$\\backslash$nknowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies$\\backslash$nflexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of$\\backslash$nthe public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and$\\backslash$ncommunication. 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