Forecasting Degradation Rates of Different Photovoltaic Systems Using Robust Principal Component Analysis and ARIMA. Pieri, E., Kyprianou, A., Phinikarides, A., Makrides, G., & Georghiou, G. E. IET Renewable Power Generation, 2017.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
Degradation rates based on forecasting of performance ratio, Rp, time series are computed and compared with actual degradation rates. A 3-year forecasting of monthly Rp , measured from photovoltaic (PV) connected systems of various technologies is performed using the seasonal auto-regressive integrating moving average (ARIMA) time series model. The seasonal ARIMA model is estimated using monthly Rp measured over a 5-year period and based on this model forecasting is implemented for the subsequent 3 years. The degradation rate at the end of the forecasting period, eighth year, is computed using a robust principal component analysis based methodology. The degradation rates obtained for various (PV) systems are then compared with the ones obtained using the actual 8-year data.
@article{pieriForecastingDegradationRates2017,
  title = {Forecasting Degradation Rates of Different Photovoltaic Systems Using Robust Principal Component Analysis and {{ARIMA}}},
  author = {Pieri, Elena and Kyprianou, Andreas and Phinikarides, Alexander and Makrides, George and Georghiou, George E.},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {IET Renewable Power Generation},
  issn = {1752-1416, 1752-1424},
  doi = {10.1049/iet-rpg.2017.0090},
  abstract = {Degradation rates based on forecasting of performance ratio, Rp, time series are computed and compared with actual degradation rates. A 3-year forecasting of monthly Rp , measured from photovoltaic (PV) connected systems of various technologies is performed using the seasonal auto-regressive integrating moving average (ARIMA) time series model. The seasonal ARIMA model is estimated using monthly Rp measured over a 5-year period and based on this model forecasting is implemented for the subsequent 3 years. The degradation rate at the end of the forecasting period, eighth year, is computed using a robust principal component analysis based methodology. The degradation rates obtained for various (PV) systems are then compared with the ones obtained using the actual 8-year data.},
  copyright = {All rights reserved},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/home/alexis/Zotero/storage/Y5PDRU3T/Pieri et al. - 2017 - Forecasting degradation rates of different photovo.pdf}
}

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