Multi-district preference modelling. Pritchard, G. & Wilson, M. C Quality & Quantity, 57(1):587–613, 2023.
Paper abstract bibtex 8 downloads Generating realistic artificial preference distributions is an important part of any simulation analysis of electoral systems. While this has been discussed in some detail in the context of a single electoral district, many electoral systems of interest are based on districts. Neither treating preferences between districts as independent nor ignoring the district structure yields satisfactory results. We present a model based on an extension of the classic Eggenberger-Pólya urn, in which each district is represented by an urn and there is correlation between urns. We show in detail that this procedure has a small number of tunable parameters, is computationally efficient, and produces ``realistic-looking" distributions. We present applications to retrospective analysis and forecasting of real elections, and intend to use the methodology to help set optimal parameters for electoral systems. (Subsumes SocArXiv paper xpb8w from 2018)
@article{pritchard2023multi,
title={Multi-district preference modelling},
author={Pritchard, Geoffrey and Wilson, Mark C},
journal={Quality \& Quantity},
volume={57},
keywords={electoral systems},
number={1},
pages={587--613},
year={2023},
url_Paper={},
abstract = {Generating realistic artificial preference distributions is an important
part of any simulation analysis of electoral systems. While this has
been discussed in some detail in the context of a single electoral
district, many electoral systems of interest are based on districts.
Neither treating preferences between districts as independent nor
ignoring the district structure yields satisfactory results. We present
a model based on an extension of the classic Eggenberger-P\'{o}lya urn,
in which each district is represented by an urn and there is correlation
between urns. We show in detail that this procedure has a small number
of tunable parameters, is computationally efficient, and produces
{``}realistic-looking{"} distributions. We present applications to
retrospective analysis and forecasting of real elections, and intend to
use the methodology to help set optimal parameters for electoral
systems. (Subsumes SocArXiv paper xpb8w from 2018)}
}
Downloads: 8
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