Eliciting a Prior Distribution. Quigley, J., Bedford, T., & Walls, L. abstract bibtex An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed and the main causes of biased assessments identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimise the impact of bias is examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.

@article{quigley_eliciting_nodate-1,
title = {Eliciting a {Prior} {Distribution}},
abstract = {An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed and the main causes of biased assessments identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimise the impact of bias is examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.},
language = {en},
author = {Quigley, John and Bedford, Tim and Walls, Lesley},
pages = {16},
file = {Quigley et al. - Eliciting a Prior Distribution.pdf:/Users/neil.hawkins/Zotero/storage/N2MA7NJ3/Quigley et al. - Eliciting a Prior Distribution.pdf:application/pdf;Quigley et al. - Eliciting a Prior Distribution.pdf:/Users/neil.hawkins/Zotero/storage/JXDUC32W/Quigley et al. - Eliciting a Prior Distribution.pdf:application/pdf},
}

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