Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups. Raghavan, V., Galstyan, A., & Tartakovsky, A. G The Annals of Applied Statistics, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.
bibtex   
@article{raghavan2013hidden,
  title={Hidden Markov models for the activity profile of terrorist groups},
  author={Raghavan, Vasanthan and Galstyan, Aram and Tartakovsky, Alexander G},
  journal={The Annals of Applied Statistics},
  pages={2402--2430},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}
}

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