Risk Management in a Dynamic Society: A Modelling Problem. Rasmussen, J. 27(2-3):183–213. ![Risk Management in a Dynamic Society: A Modelling Problem [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex In spite of all efforts to design safer systems, we still witness severe, large-scale accidents. A basic question is: Do we actually have adequate models of accident causation in the present dynamic society? The socio-technical system involved in risk management includes several levels ranging from legislators, over managers and work planners, to system operators. This system is presently stressed by a fast pace of technological change, by an increasingly aggressive, competitive environment, and by changing regulatory practices and public pressure. Traditionally, each level of this is studied separately by a particular academic discipline, and modelling is done by generalising across systems and their particular hazard sources. It is argued that risk management must be modelled by cross-disciplinary studies, considering risk management to be a control problem and serving to represent the control structure involving all levels of society for each particular hazard category. Furthermore, it is argued that this requires a system-oriented approach based on functional abstraction rather than structural decomposition. Therefore, task analysis focused on action sequences and occasional deviation in terms of human errors should be replaced by a model of behaviour shaping mechanisms in terms of work system constraints, boundaries of acceptable performance, and subjective criteria guiding adaptation to change. It is found that at present a convergence of research paradigms of human sciences guided by cognitive science concepts supports this approach. A review of this convergence within decision theory and management research is presented in comparison with the evolution of paradigms within safety research.
@article{rasmussenRiskManagementDynamic1997,
title = {Risk Management in a Dynamic Society: A Modelling Problem},
author = {Rasmussen, Jens},
date = {1997-11},
journaltitle = {Safety Science},
volume = {27},
pages = {183--213},
issn = {0925-7535},
doi = {10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0},
abstract = {In spite of all efforts to design safer systems, we still witness severe, large-scale accidents. A basic question is: Do we actually have adequate models of accident causation in the present dynamic society? The socio-technical system involved in risk management includes several levels ranging from legislators, over managers and work planners, to system operators. This system is presently stressed by a fast pace of technological change, by an increasingly aggressive, competitive environment, and by changing regulatory practices and public pressure. Traditionally, each level of this is studied separately by a particular academic discipline, and modelling is done by generalising across systems and their particular hazard sources. It is argued that risk management must be modelled by cross-disciplinary studies, considering risk management to be a control problem and serving to represent the control structure involving all levels of society for each particular hazard category. Furthermore, it is argued that this requires a system-oriented approach based on functional abstraction rather than structural decomposition. Therefore, task analysis focused on action sequences and occasional deviation in terms of human errors should be replaced by a model of behaviour shaping mechanisms in terms of work system constraints, boundaries of acceptable performance, and subjective criteria guiding adaptation to change. It is found that at present a convergence of research paradigms of human sciences guided by cognitive science concepts supports this approach. A review of this convergence within decision theory and management research is presented in comparison with the evolution of paradigms within safety research.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12711254,decision-making,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,modelling-vs-management,multi-criteria-decision-analysis,risk-assessment,science-policy-interface},
number = {2-3}
}
Downloads: 0
{"_id":"hQ54RpqBZGZi22eDe","bibbaseid":"rasmussen-riskmanagementinadynamicsocietyamodellingproblem","authorIDs":[],"author_short":["Rasmussen, J."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Risk Management in a Dynamic Society: A Modelling Problem","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Rasmussen"],"firstnames":["Jens"],"suffixes":[]}],"date":"1997-11","journaltitle":"Safety Science","volume":"27","pages":"183–213","issn":"0925-7535","doi":"10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0","abstract":"In spite of all efforts to design safer systems, we still witness severe, large-scale accidents. A basic question is: Do we actually have adequate models of accident causation in the present dynamic society? The socio-technical system involved in risk management includes several levels ranging from legislators, over managers and work planners, to system operators. This system is presently stressed by a fast pace of technological change, by an increasingly aggressive, competitive environment, and by changing regulatory practices and public pressure. Traditionally, each level of this is studied separately by a particular academic discipline, and modelling is done by generalising across systems and their particular hazard sources. It is argued that risk management must be modelled by cross-disciplinary studies, considering risk management to be a control problem and serving to represent the control structure involving all levels of society for each particular hazard category. Furthermore, it is argued that this requires a system-oriented approach based on functional abstraction rather than structural decomposition. Therefore, task analysis focused on action sequences and occasional deviation in terms of human errors should be replaced by a model of behaviour shaping mechanisms in terms of work system constraints, boundaries of acceptable performance, and subjective criteria guiding adaptation to change. It is found that at present a convergence of research paradigms of human sciences guided by cognitive science concepts supports this approach. A review of this convergence within decision theory and management research is presented in comparison with the evolution of paradigms within safety research.","keywords":"*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12711254,decision-making,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,modelling-vs-management,multi-criteria-decision-analysis,risk-assessment,science-policy-interface","number":"2-3","bibtex":"@article{rasmussenRiskManagementDynamic1997,\n title = {Risk Management in a Dynamic Society: A Modelling Problem},\n author = {Rasmussen, Jens},\n date = {1997-11},\n journaltitle = {Safety Science},\n volume = {27},\n pages = {183--213},\n issn = {0925-7535},\n doi = {10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0},\n url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0},\n abstract = {In spite of all efforts to design safer systems, we still witness severe, large-scale accidents. A basic question is: Do we actually have adequate models of accident causation in the present dynamic society? The socio-technical system involved in risk management includes several levels ranging from legislators, over managers and work planners, to system operators. This system is presently stressed by a fast pace of technological change, by an increasingly aggressive, competitive environment, and by changing regulatory practices and public pressure. Traditionally, each level of this is studied separately by a particular academic discipline, and modelling is done by generalising across systems and their particular hazard sources. It is argued that risk management must be modelled by cross-disciplinary studies, considering risk management to be a control problem and serving to represent the control structure involving all levels of society for each particular hazard category. Furthermore, it is argued that this requires a system-oriented approach based on functional abstraction rather than structural decomposition. Therefore, task analysis focused on action sequences and occasional deviation in terms of human errors should be replaced by a model of behaviour shaping mechanisms in terms of work system constraints, boundaries of acceptable performance, and subjective criteria guiding adaptation to change. It is found that at present a convergence of research paradigms of human sciences guided by cognitive science concepts supports this approach. A review of this convergence within decision theory and management research is presented in comparison with the evolution of paradigms within safety research.},\n keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12711254,decision-making,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,modelling-vs-management,multi-criteria-decision-analysis,risk-assessment,science-policy-interface},\n number = {2-3}\n}\n\n","author_short":["Rasmussen, J."],"key":"rasmussenRiskManagementDynamic1997","id":"rasmussenRiskManagementDynamic1997","bibbaseid":"rasmussen-riskmanagementinadynamicsocietyamodellingproblem","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0"},"keyword":["*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM","~INRMM-MiD:c-12711254","decision-making","integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management","modelling-vs-management","multi-criteria-decision-analysis","risk-assessment","science-policy-interface"],"downloads":0},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"https://tmpfiles.org/dl/58794/INRMM.bib","creationDate":"2020-07-02T22:41:19.300Z","downloads":0,"keywords":["*imported-from-citeulike-inrmm","~inrmm-mid:c-12711254","decision-making","integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management","modelling-vs-management","multi-criteria-decision-analysis","risk-assessment","science-policy-interface"],"search_terms":["risk","management","dynamic","society","modelling","problem","rasmussen"],"title":"Risk Management in a Dynamic Society: A Modelling Problem","year":null,"dataSources":["DXuKbcZTirdigFKPF"]}