The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P, Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., ONeill, B. C, Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C, Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., & Tavoni, M. Glob. Environ. Change, 42:153–168, January, 2017.
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2°C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
@article{riahi_shared_2017,
	title = {The {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways} and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: {An} overview},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {0959-3780},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},
	abstract = {This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs
are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change
research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of
future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The
pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort
and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead
in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to
climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing
alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable
development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and
middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic
projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with
the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the
elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of
SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy
consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use
dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a
massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The
associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about
25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to
mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three
factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and
(3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target
of 2.6W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2°C,
differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP
marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from
the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to
represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting
narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures
broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their
subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects.
Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others,
involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the
adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios
with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate
model intercomparison project (CMIP6).},
	journal = {Glob. Environ. Change},
	author = {Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and ONeill, Brian C and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and Kc, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Da Silva, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Adaptation, Climate change, Community scenarios, Mitigation, RCP, SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways},
	pages = {153--168},
}
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