Climate Change Impact Assessment for an Agricultural Watershed in the U.S. Desert Southwest. Samimi, M., Mirchi, A., Townsend, N. T., Gutzler, D. S., Ahn, S., Sheng, Z., Moriasi, D., Granados-Olivas, A., & Hargrove, W. L. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, December, 2019.
Climate Change Impact Assessment for an Agricultural Watershed in the U.S. Desert Southwest [link]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
Robust analysis of water availability under plausible future climate conditions is essential for adaptive water resources management, especially in water scarce regions. We analyze water availability projections in a heavily irrigated agricultural watershed located in the middle section of the Rio Grande Basin in the U.S. Desert Southwest. A set of 97 future streamflow scenarios based on downscaled, bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) outputs normalized by us to account for upstream human impacts are used to evaluate future inflows to Elephant Butte and Caballo Reservoirs (the principal surface water storage reservoirs upstream of the study area), possible future reservoir releases, and groundwater pumping to sustain irrigated agriculture. The streamflow projections describe a wide range of dry and wet hydrological/climate conditions compared to the average historical flows in the river, indicating significant uncertainty in future water availability in the Rio Grande Valley. We apply the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to illustrate the impact of future climate on different components of the water budget at the watershed scale. We discuss implications of the projected water availability scenarios for sustainability of irrigated agriculture and groundwater resources in this dryland agricultural watershed where surface water and groundwater are conjunctively managed to cope with extreme variability of renewable water.
@article{samimi_climate_2019,
	title = {Climate {Change} {Impact} {Assessment} for an {Agricultural} {Watershed} in the {U}.{S}. {Desert} {Southwest}},
	volume = {33},
	url = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019AGUFM.H33M2149S},
	abstract = {Robust analysis of water availability under plausible future climate 
conditions is essential for adaptive water resources management,
especially in water scarce regions. We analyze water availability
projections in a heavily irrigated agricultural watershed located in the
middle section of the Rio Grande Basin in the U.S. Desert Southwest. A
set of 97 future streamflow scenarios based on downscaled,
bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) outputs normalized by us to
account for upstream human impacts are used to evaluate future inflows
to Elephant Butte and Caballo Reservoirs (the principal surface water
storage reservoirs upstream of the study area), possible future
reservoir releases, and groundwater pumping to sustain irrigated
agriculture. The streamflow projections describe a wide range of dry and
wet hydrological/climate conditions compared to the average historical
flows in the river, indicating significant uncertainty in future water
availability in the Rio Grande Valley. We apply the Soil and Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) to illustrate the impact of future climate on
different components of the water budget at the watershed scale. We
discuss implications of the projected water availability scenarios for
sustainability of irrigated agriculture and groundwater resources in
this dryland agricultural watershed where surface water and groundwater
are conjunctively managed to cope with extreme variability of renewable
water.},
	urldate = {2020-10-23},
	journal = {AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts},
	author = {Samimi, M. and Mirchi, A. and Townsend, N. T. and Gutzler, D. S. and Ahn, S. and Sheng, Z. and Moriasi, D. and Granados-Olivas, A. and Hargrove, W. L.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2019},
	keywords = {1807 Climate impacts, 1834 Human impacts, 1847 Modeling, 1873 Uncertainty assessment, HYDROLOGY},
}

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