Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales. Scaife, A. A., Athanassiadou, M., Andrews, M., Arribas, A., Baldwin, M., Dunstone, N., Knight, J., MacLachlan, C., Manzini, E., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Stockdale, T., & Williams, A. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(5):1752–1758, March, 2014. ![Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction.
@article{Scaife2014Predictability,
abstract = {The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction.},
added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200},
author = {Scaife, Adam A. and Athanassiadou, Maria and Andrews, Martin and Arribas, Alberto and Baldwin, Mark and Dunstone, Nick and Knight, Jeff and MacLachlan, Craig and Manzini, Elisa and M\"{u}ller, Wolfgang A. and Pohlmann, Holger and Smith, Doug and Stockdale, Tim and Williams, Andrew},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2542f50fcf9f8861fcb0b50a75a07852f/pbett},
citeulike-article-id = {13054959},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013gl059160},
day = 16,
doi = {10.1002/2013gl059160},
interhash = {04a4df640a5d80c21273cf8c05d9bded},
intrahash = {542f50fcf9f8861fcb0b50a75a07852f},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {colleagues seasonal decadal QBO},
month = mar,
number = 5,
pages = {1752--1758},
posted-at = {2014-02-20 11:07:08},
priority = {2},
timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:34:09.000+0200},
title = {Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013gl059160},
volume = 41,
year = 2014
}
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