Using scenarios to explore future energy demand in industrialized countries. Schipper, L. & Meyers, S. Energy Policy, 21(3):264--275, March, 1993.
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We present three scenarios of OECD average sectoral energy intensities in the year 2010. These represent the direction in which current and expected trends seem to be moving; what might happen if energy efficiency were given a high priority by governments and the private sector; and what might be achieved if restraining energy use became a very high priority for public policy (eg if CO2 emissions were recognized as a serious problem). The scenarios delineate an important (if somewhat vague) boundary between a relatively easily attainable improvement in efficiency and a more problematical level of change. With a mixture of pricing and other policies, they suggest that OECD primary energy use in 2010 could be 20-25% less than currently seems likely (or about equal to demand in 1989) if fairly determined efforts were made. To increase that reduction to 40-45% would be very challenging, but not impossible.
@article{ Schipper1993,
  abstract = {We present three scenarios of OECD average sectoral energy intensities in the year 2010. These represent the direction in which current and expected trends seem to be moving; what might happen if energy efficiency were given a high priority by governments and the private sector; and what might be achieved if restraining energy use became a very high priority for public policy (eg if CO2 emissions were recognized as a serious problem). The scenarios delineate an important (if somewhat vague) boundary between a relatively easily attainable improvement in efficiency and a more problematical level of change. With a mixture of pricing and other policies, they suggest that OECD primary energy use in 2010 could be 20-25% less than currently seems likely (or about equal to demand in 1989) if fairly determined efforts were made. To increase that reduction to 40-45% would be very challenging, but not impossible.},
  author = {Schipper, Lee and Meyers, Stephen},
  doi = {10.1016/0301-4215(93)90248-E},
  issn = {0301-4215},
  journal = {Energy Policy},
  keywords = {Energy demand,Energy intensities,OECD},
  mendeley-tags = {Energy demand,Energy intensities,OECD},
  month = {March},
  number = {3},
  pages = {264--275},
  title = {{Using scenarios to explore future energy demand in industrialized countries}},
  volume = {21},
  year = {1993}
}

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