Multivariate Methods for Life Safety Analysis in Case of Fire. Schröder, B. Ph.D. Thesis, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag, Jülich, 2017.
Paper abstract bibtex The assessment of life safety in case of a building re is based on thecomparison of the available safe egress time (ASET) and the requiredsafe egress time (RSET). With regards to simulation experiments, thisstraightforward approach is accompanied by uncertainties including theunderlying models, the specication of inputs, and the analysis of outputs.Concerning the two latter aspects, this thesis introduces methodologicalextensions in order to conduct ASET-RSET analyses in a multivariatefashion. For the specication of inputs, the multitude of possible scenariosis represented with the help of systematic sampling techniques.Uncertainties in terms of analysis are tackled with multi-criterial mapsrendering both ASET and RSET in spacious environments. The subtractionof both maps is used to determine a measure of consequences.These methods are applied to a multi-level underground station which isinvestigated with numerical simulations based on the formation of two subsystems,namely Fire and Evacuation. The analysis incorporates an ensembleof 8; 640 combined re scenarios and evacuation scenarios. Throughoutthe entire design space, more than 95 % of the scenario combinationsaccount for less than half of the maximal observed consequences. Thisanalysis is rened by agglomerative clustering in order to group all observationshierarchically. It becomes evident that the lowest margins ofconsequences are represented by two clusters covering approximately 75 %of all observations. The investigation of the parametric relations of allclusters allows for the systematic identication of the determining characteristicsof re and evacuation scenarios. In addition to the consequencemeasure derived from ASET-RSET, fractional eective doses (FED) arecalculated to supplement the analysis. Within the clusters, the numberof occupants exceeding common FED thresholds applicable to incapacitationcorresponds to the introduced ASET-RSET measure. However,throughout the entire design space, this correspondence is not clear andneeds further investigation
@phdthesis{schroder_multivariate_2017,
address = {Jülich},
type = {phdthesis},
title = {Multivariate {Methods} for {Life} {Safety} {Analysis} in {Case} of {Fire}},
url = {http://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/838011/files/IAS_Series_34.pdf},
abstract = {The assessment of life safety in case of a building re is based on thecomparison of the available safe egress time (ASET) and the requiredsafe egress time (RSET). With regards to simulation experiments, thisstraightforward approach is accompanied by uncertainties including theunderlying models, the specication of inputs, and the analysis of outputs.Concerning the two latter aspects, this thesis introduces methodologicalextensions in order to conduct ASET-RSET analyses in a multivariatefashion. For the specication of inputs, the multitude of possible scenariosis represented with the help of systematic sampling techniques.Uncertainties in terms of analysis are tackled with multi-criterial mapsrendering both ASET and RSET in spacious environments. The subtractionof both maps is used to determine a measure of consequences.These methods are applied to a multi-level underground station which isinvestigated with numerical simulations based on the formation of two subsystems,namely Fire and Evacuation. The analysis incorporates an ensembleof 8; 640 combined re scenarios and evacuation scenarios. Throughoutthe entire design space, more than 95 \% of the scenario combinationsaccount for less than half of the maximal observed consequences. Thisanalysis is rened by agglomerative clustering in order to group all observationshierarchically. It becomes evident that the lowest margins ofconsequences are represented by two clusters covering approximately 75 \%of all observations. The investigation of the parametric relations of allclusters allows for the systematic identication of the determining characteristicsof re and evacuation scenarios. In addition to the consequencemeasure derived from ASET-RSET, fractional eective doses (FED) arecalculated to supplement the analysis. Within the clusters, the numberof occupants exceeding common FED thresholds applicable to incapacitationcorresponds to the introduced ASET-RSET measure. However,throughout the entire design space, this correspondence is not clear andneeds further investigation},
school = {Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag},
author = {Schröder, Benjamin},
year = {2017},
keywords = {\#nosource, FDS, jpscore, jpsfire, orpheus},
}
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For the specication of inputs, the multitude of possible scenariosis represented with the help of systematic sampling techniques.Uncertainties in terms of analysis are tackled with multi-criterial mapsrendering both ASET and RSET in spacious environments. The subtractionof both maps is used to determine a measure of consequences.These methods are applied to a multi-level underground station which isinvestigated with numerical simulations based on the formation of two subsystems,namely Fire and Evacuation. The analysis incorporates an ensembleof 8; 640 combined re scenarios and evacuation scenarios. Throughoutthe entire design space, more than 95 % of the scenario combinationsaccount for less than half of the maximal observed consequences. Thisanalysis is rened by agglomerative clustering in order to group all observationshierarchically. It becomes evident that the lowest margins ofconsequences are represented by two clusters covering approximately 75 %of all observations. The investigation of the parametric relations of allclusters allows for the systematic identication of the determining characteristicsof re and evacuation scenarios. In addition to the consequencemeasure derived from ASET-RSET, fractional eective doses (FED) arecalculated to supplement the analysis. Within the clusters, the numberof occupants exceeding common FED thresholds applicable to incapacitationcorresponds to the introduced ASET-RSET measure. 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With regards to simulation experiments, thisstraightforward approach is accompanied by uncertainties including theunderlying models, the specication of inputs, and the analysis of outputs.Concerning the two latter aspects, this thesis introduces methodologicalextensions in order to conduct ASET-RSET analyses in a multivariatefashion. For the specication of inputs, the multitude of possible scenariosis represented with the help of systematic sampling techniques.Uncertainties in terms of analysis are tackled with multi-criterial mapsrendering both ASET and RSET in spacious environments. The subtractionof both maps is used to determine a measure of consequences.These methods are applied to a multi-level underground station which isinvestigated with numerical simulations based on the formation of two subsystems,namely Fire and Evacuation. The analysis incorporates an ensembleof 8; 640 combined re scenarios and evacuation scenarios. Throughoutthe entire design space, more than 95 \\% of the scenario combinationsaccount for less than half of the maximal observed consequences. Thisanalysis is rened by agglomerative clustering in order to group all observationshierarchically. It becomes evident that the lowest margins ofconsequences are represented by two clusters covering approximately 75 \\%of all observations. The investigation of the parametric relations of allclusters allows for the systematic identication of the determining characteristicsof re and evacuation scenarios. In addition to the consequencemeasure derived from ASET-RSET, fractional eective doses (FED) arecalculated to supplement the analysis. Within the clusters, the numberof occupants exceeding common FED thresholds applicable to incapacitationcorresponds to the introduced ASET-RSET measure. 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