Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average. Shale, E. A., Boylan, J. E., & Johnston, F. R. The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 57(5):588--592, May, 2006.
Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
The majority of the range of items held by many stockists exhibit intermittent demand. Accurate forecasting of the issue rate for such items is important and several methods have been developed, but all produce biased forecasts to a greater or lesser degree. This paper derives the bias expected when the order arrivals follows a Poisson process, which leads to a correction factor for application in practice. Extensions to some other arrival processes are briefly considered. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
@article{shale_forecasting_2006,
	title = {Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {01605682},
	shorttitle = {Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average},
	url = {http://search.proquest.com/docview/231379873?accountid=10382 http://link.library.curtin.edu.au/openurl??url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&genre=article&sid=ProQ:ProQ%3Aabiglobal&atitle=Forecasting+for+intermittent+demand%3A+the+estimation+of+an+unbiased+average&title=The+Journal+of+the+Operational+Research+Society&issn=01605682&date=2006-05-01&volume=57&issue=5&spage=588&au=Shale%2C+E+A%3BBoylan%2C+J+E%3BJohnston%2C+F+R&isbn=&jtitle=The+Journal+of+the+Operational+Research+Society&btitle=&rft_id=info:eric/&rft_id=info:doi/10.1057%2Fpalgrave.jors.2602031},
	doi = {10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602031},
	abstract = {The majority of the range of items held by many stockists exhibit intermittent demand. Accurate forecasting of the issue rate for such items is important and several methods have been developed, but all produce biased forecasts to a greater or lesser degree. This paper derives the bias expected when the order arrivals follows a Poisson process, which leads to a correction factor for application in practice. Extensions to some other arrival processes are briefly considered. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]},
	language = {English},
	number = {5},
	journal = {The Journal of the Operational Research Society},
	author = {Shale, E. A. and Boylan, J. E. and Johnston, F. R.},
	month = may,
	year = {2006},
	keywords = {2600:Management science/operations research, 5330:Inventory management, 9130:Experimental/theoretical, Computers, Demand, Forecasting, Inventory control, Studies},
	pages = {588--592}
}
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