Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: The nuclear winter case. Shi, Y., Montes, F., Di Gioia, F., Xia, L., Bardeen, C. G, Anderson, C., Gil, Y., Khider, D., Ratnakar, V., & Kemanian, A. Environmental Research Letters, April, 2025. ![Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: The nuclear winter case [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Abstract Following a nuclear war, destruction would extend well beyond the blast zones due to the onset of a nuclear winter that can devastate the biosphere, including agriculture. Understanding the damage magnitude and preparing for the folly of its occurrence is critical given current geopolitical tensions. We developed and applied a framework to simulate global crop production under a nuclear winter using the Cycles agroecosystem model, incorporating UV-B radiation effects on plant growth and adaptive selection of crop maturity types (shorter cycle the lower the temperature). Using maize ( Zea maize L.) as a sentinel crop, we found that annual maize production could decline from 7% after a small-scale regional nuclear war with 5 Tg soot injection, to 80% after a global nuclear war with 150 Tg soot injection, with recovery taking from 7 to 12 years. UV-B damage would peak 6–8 years post-war and can further decrease annual maize production by 7%. Over the recovery period, adaptive selection of maize maturity types to track changing temperatures could increase production by 10% compared to a no-adaptation strategy. Seed availability may become a critical adaptation bottleneck. We propose that adaptation must include the development of Agricultural Resilience Kits, consisting of region- and climate-specific seed and technology packages designed to buffer against uncertainty while supply chains recover. This kit, congenial with the transient conditions during the recovery period, would also be applicable to other catastrophes affecting food production.
@article{shi_adapting_2025,
title = {Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: {The} nuclear winter case},
copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
issn = {1748-9326},
shorttitle = {Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5},
abstract = {Abstract
Following a nuclear war, destruction would extend well beyond the blast zones due to the onset of a nuclear winter that can devastate the biosphere, including agriculture. Understanding the damage magnitude and preparing for the folly of its occurrence is critical given current geopolitical tensions. We developed and applied a framework to simulate global crop production under a nuclear winter using the Cycles agroecosystem model, incorporating UV-B radiation effects on plant growth and adaptive selection of crop maturity types (shorter cycle the lower the temperature). Using maize (
Zea maize
L.) as a sentinel crop, we found that annual maize production could decline from 7\% after a small-scale regional nuclear war with 5 Tg soot injection, to 80\% after a global nuclear war with 150 Tg soot injection, with recovery taking from 7 to 12 years. UV-B damage would peak 6–8 years post-war and can further decrease annual maize production by 7\%. Over the recovery period, adaptive selection of maize maturity types to track changing temperatures could increase production by 10\% compared to a no-adaptation strategy. Seed availability may become a critical adaptation bottleneck. We propose that adaptation must include the development of Agricultural Resilience Kits, consisting of region- and climate-specific seed and technology packages designed to buffer against uncertainty while supply chains recover. This kit, congenial with the transient conditions during the recovery period, would also be applicable to other catastrophes affecting food production.},
urldate = {2025-05-12},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
author = {Shi, Yuning and Montes, Felipe and Di Gioia, Francesco and Xia, Lili and Bardeen, Charles G and Anderson, Charles and Gil, Yolanda and Khider, Deborah and Ratnakar, Varun and Kemanian, Armen},
month = apr,
year = {2025},
}
Downloads: 0
{"_id":"nmLsaYAHgbyjELR5r","bibbaseid":"shi-montes-digioia-xia-bardeen-anderson-gil-khider-etal-adaptingagriculturetoclimatecatastrophesthenuclearwintercase-2025","author_short":["Shi, Y.","Montes, F.","Di Gioia, F.","Xia, L.","Bardeen, C. G","Anderson, C.","Gil, Y.","Khider, D.","Ratnakar, V.","Kemanian, A."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: The nuclear winter case","copyright":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","issn":"1748-9326","shorttitle":"Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes","url":"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5","abstract":"Abstract Following a nuclear war, destruction would extend well beyond the blast zones due to the onset of a nuclear winter that can devastate the biosphere, including agriculture. Understanding the damage magnitude and preparing for the folly of its occurrence is critical given current geopolitical tensions. We developed and applied a framework to simulate global crop production under a nuclear winter using the Cycles agroecosystem model, incorporating UV-B radiation effects on plant growth and adaptive selection of crop maturity types (shorter cycle the lower the temperature). Using maize ( Zea maize L.) as a sentinel crop, we found that annual maize production could decline from 7% after a small-scale regional nuclear war with 5 Tg soot injection, to 80% after a global nuclear war with 150 Tg soot injection, with recovery taking from 7 to 12 years. UV-B damage would peak 6–8 years post-war and can further decrease annual maize production by 7%. Over the recovery period, adaptive selection of maize maturity types to track changing temperatures could increase production by 10% compared to a no-adaptation strategy. Seed availability may become a critical adaptation bottleneck. We propose that adaptation must include the development of Agricultural Resilience Kits, consisting of region- and climate-specific seed and technology packages designed to buffer against uncertainty while supply chains recover. This kit, congenial with the transient conditions during the recovery period, would also be applicable to other catastrophes affecting food production.","urldate":"2025-05-12","journal":"Environmental Research Letters","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Shi"],"firstnames":["Yuning"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Montes"],"firstnames":["Felipe"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Di","Gioia"],"firstnames":["Francesco"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Xia"],"firstnames":["Lili"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Bardeen"],"firstnames":["Charles","G"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Anderson"],"firstnames":["Charles"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Gil"],"firstnames":["Yolanda"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Khider"],"firstnames":["Deborah"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Ratnakar"],"firstnames":["Varun"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Kemanian"],"firstnames":["Armen"],"suffixes":[]}],"month":"April","year":"2025","bibtex":"@article{shi_adapting_2025,\n\ttitle = {Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: {The} nuclear winter case},\n\tcopyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},\n\tissn = {1748-9326},\n\tshorttitle = {Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes},\n\turl = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5},\n\tdoi = {10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5},\n\tabstract = {Abstract \n \n Following a nuclear war, destruction would extend well beyond the blast zones due to the onset of a nuclear winter that can devastate the biosphere, including agriculture. Understanding the damage magnitude and preparing for the folly of its occurrence is critical given current geopolitical tensions. We developed and applied a framework to simulate global crop production under a nuclear winter using the Cycles agroecosystem model, incorporating UV-B radiation effects on plant growth and adaptive selection of crop maturity types (shorter cycle the lower the temperature). Using maize ( \n Zea maize \n L.) as a sentinel crop, we found that annual maize production could decline from 7\\% after a small-scale regional nuclear war with 5 Tg soot injection, to 80\\% after a global nuclear war with 150 Tg soot injection, with recovery taking from 7 to 12 years. UV-B damage would peak 6–8 years post-war and can further decrease annual maize production by 7\\%. Over the recovery period, adaptive selection of maize maturity types to track changing temperatures could increase production by 10\\% compared to a no-adaptation strategy. Seed availability may become a critical adaptation bottleneck. We propose that adaptation must include the development of Agricultural Resilience Kits, consisting of region- and climate-specific seed and technology packages designed to buffer against uncertainty while supply chains recover. This kit, congenial with the transient conditions during the recovery period, would also be applicable to other catastrophes affecting food production.},\n\turldate = {2025-05-12},\n\tjournal = {Environmental Research Letters},\n\tauthor = {Shi, Yuning and Montes, Felipe and Di Gioia, Francesco and Xia, Lili and Bardeen, Charles G and Anderson, Charles and Gil, Yolanda and Khider, Deborah and Ratnakar, Varun and Kemanian, Armen},\n\tmonth = apr,\n\tyear = {2025},\n}\n\n","author_short":["Shi, Y.","Montes, F.","Di Gioia, F.","Xia, L.","Bardeen, C. G","Anderson, C.","Gil, Y.","Khider, D.","Ratnakar, V.","Kemanian, A."],"key":"shi_adapting_2025","id":"shi_adapting_2025","bibbaseid":"shi-montes-digioia-xia-bardeen-anderson-gil-khider-etal-adaptingagriculturetoclimatecatastrophesthenuclearwintercase-2025","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5"},"metadata":{"authorlinks":{}}},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"https://api.zotero.org/users/5936637/collections/MTMWFT3Q/items?key=dB9lwcJrzs2q4CGlqfNE7Q6V&format=bibtex&limit=100","dataSources":["eMcMhHQQ7Gfv9FzFH","WKPuggaDbFpa6WmSm"],"keywords":[],"search_terms":["adapting","agriculture","climate","catastrophes","nuclear","winter","case","shi","montes","di gioia","xia","bardeen","anderson","gil","khider","ratnakar","kemanian"],"title":"Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: The nuclear winter case","year":2025}