False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant. Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., & Simonsohn, U. Psychological Science, 22(11):1359–1366, November, 2011. ZSCC: 0004478![False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists’ nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process.
@article{simmons_false-positive_2011,
title = {False-{Positive} {Psychology}: {Undisclosed} {Flexibility} in {Data} {Collection} and {Analysis} {Allows} {Presenting} {Anything} as {Significant}},
volume = {22},
issn = {0956-7976, 1467-9280},
shorttitle = {False-{Positive} {Psychology}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0956797611417632},
doi = {10.1177/0956797611417632},
abstract = {In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists’ nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process.},
language = {en},
number = {11},
urldate = {2020-04-02},
journal = {Psychological Science},
author = {Simmons, Joseph P. and Nelson, Leif D. and Simonsohn, Uri},
month = nov,
year = {2011},
note = {ZSCC: 0004478},
pages = {1359--1366},
}
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