Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world. Smith, M. S., Horrocks, L., Harvey, A., & Hamilton, C. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1934):196–216, January, 2011. ![Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.
@article{smith_rethinking_2011,
title = {Rethinking adaptation for a 4°{C} world},
volume = {369},
copyright = {This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.},
issn = {1364-503X, 1471-2962},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/196},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0277},
abstract = {With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.},
language = {en},
number = {1934},
urldate = {2015-04-17},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
author = {Smith, Mark Stafford and Horrocks, Lisa and Harvey, Alex and Hamilton, Clive},
month = jan,
year = {2011},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
pages = {196--216},
file = {Smith et al. - 2011 - Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\CSJAVFDZ\\Smith et al. - 2011 - Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.pdf:application/pdf}
}
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