@article{spinoniSpatialPatternsEuropean2015,
  title = {Spatial Patterns of {{European}} Droughts under a Moderate Emission Scenario},
  author = {Spinoni, J. and Naumann, G. and Vogt, J.},
  date = {2015-07},
  journaltitle = {Advances in Science and Research},
  volume = {12},
  pages = {179--186},
  issn = {1992-0636},
  doi = {10.5194/asr-12-179-2015},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015},
  abstract = {Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.

[Excerpt: Conclusions] In this study we investigated the tendency of drought events in Europe until 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario, the KNMI-RACMO2. To do that, we based our analyses on two drought indicators, the SPI and the SPEI, computed at a 12-month scale. Regarding the drought events, we defined four quantities (frequency, duration, severity, and intensity), and we compared the recent past (1981-2010) vs. the near (2041-2070) and the far future (2071-2100). The spatial drought patterns have been analyzed both at 0.25° × 0.25° and at the country scale. We looked for the answers to a few questions: are the drought events likely to become more frequent in the future? Will they be longer? Will they be more severe and intense? Southern Europe, that already experienced a drying trend in the second part of the 20th century (see, e.g. IPCC, 2014), is projected to be affected by more frequent, severe, intense, and longer drought events in the near future and even more in the far future. The drying trend is driven by the combination of PET increase and precipitation decrease. Oppositely, northern Europe, the area that experienced a trend toward wetness from the 1970s onwards (IPCC, 2014), is projected to be involved by fewer and less intense droughts, mainly due to the projected precipitation increase. The results of this study should be considered as a preliminary step towards more detailed analyses regarding the projections of European drought events. Many different aspects could be introduced to refine the methodologies and the outputs. Among them we plan to study seasonal droughts, adding new indicators, using other models belonging to the A1B (see Meehl et al., 2005, for a summary) and different scenario families, performing tests to compute the statistical error intervals of the climate projections, and coupling the drought information with other climate extremes.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13763436,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,droughts,europe,featured-publication,scenario-analysis,spatial-pattern}
}

{"_id":"64ZqkCzG2GTJaHdXb","bibbaseid":"spinoni-naumann-vogt-spatialpatternsofeuropeandroughtsunderamoderateemissionscenario","authorIDs":[],"author_short":["Spinoni, J.","Naumann, G.","Vogt, J."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Spatial Patterns of European Droughts under a Moderate Emission Scenario","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Spinoni"],"firstnames":["J."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Naumann"],"firstnames":["G."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Vogt"],"firstnames":["J."],"suffixes":[]}],"date":"2015-07","journaltitle":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"12","pages":"179–186","issn":"1992-0636","doi":"10.5194/asr-12-179-2015","url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015","abstract":"Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions. [Excerpt: Conclusions] In this study we investigated the tendency of drought events in Europe until 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario, the KNMI-RACMO2. To do that, we based our analyses on two drought indicators, the SPI and the SPEI, computed at a 12-month scale. Regarding the drought events, we defined four quantities (frequency, duration, severity, and intensity), and we compared the recent past (1981-2010) vs. the near (2041-2070) and the far future (2071-2100). The spatial drought patterns have been analyzed both at 0.25° × 0.25° and at the country scale. We looked for the answers to a few questions: are the drought events likely to become more frequent in the future? Will they be longer? Will they be more severe and intense? Southern Europe, that already experienced a drying trend in the second part of the 20th century (see, e.g. IPCC, 2014), is projected to be affected by more frequent, severe, intense, and longer drought events in the near future and even more in the far future. The drying trend is driven by the combination of PET increase and precipitation decrease. Oppositely, northern Europe, the area that experienced a trend toward wetness from the 1970s onwards (IPCC, 2014), is projected to be involved by fewer and less intense droughts, mainly due to the projected precipitation increase. The results of this study should be considered as a preliminary step towards more detailed analyses regarding the projections of European drought events. Many different aspects could be introduced to refine the methodologies and the outputs. Among them we plan to study seasonal droughts, adding new indicators, using other models belonging to the A1B (see Meehl et al., 2005, for a summary) and different scenario families, performing tests to compute the statistical error intervals of the climate projections, and coupling the drought information with other climate extremes.","keywords":"*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13763436,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,droughts,europe,featured-publication,scenario-analysis,spatial-pattern","bibtex":"@article{spinoniSpatialPatternsEuropean2015,\n title = {Spatial Patterns of {{European}} Droughts under a Moderate Emission Scenario},\n author = {Spinoni, J. and Naumann, G. and Vogt, J.},\n date = {2015-07},\n journaltitle = {Advances in Science and Research},\n volume = {12},\n pages = {179--186},\n issn = {1992-0636},\n doi = {10.5194/asr-12-179-2015},\n url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015},\n abstract = {Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.\n\n[Excerpt: Conclusions] In this study we investigated the tendency of drought events in Europe until 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario, the KNMI-RACMO2. To do that, we based our analyses on two drought indicators, the SPI and the SPEI, computed at a 12-month scale. Regarding the drought events, we defined four quantities (frequency, duration, severity, and intensity), and we compared the recent past (1981-2010) vs. the near (2041-2070) and the far future (2071-2100). The spatial drought patterns have been analyzed both at 0.25° × 0.25° and at the country scale. We looked for the answers to a few questions: are the drought events likely to become more frequent in the future? Will they be longer? Will they be more severe and intense? Southern Europe, that already experienced a drying trend in the second part of the 20th century (see, e.g. IPCC, 2014), is projected to be affected by more frequent, severe, intense, and longer drought events in the near future and even more in the far future. The drying trend is driven by the combination of PET increase and precipitation decrease. Oppositely, northern Europe, the area that experienced a trend toward wetness from the 1970s onwards (IPCC, 2014), is projected to be involved by fewer and less intense droughts, mainly due to the projected precipitation increase. The results of this study should be considered as a preliminary step towards more detailed analyses regarding the projections of European drought events. Many different aspects could be introduced to refine the methodologies and the outputs. Among them we plan to study seasonal droughts, adding new indicators, using other models belonging to the A1B (see Meehl et al., 2005, for a summary) and different scenario families, performing tests to compute the statistical error intervals of the climate projections, and coupling the drought information with other climate extremes.},\n keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13763436,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,droughts,europe,featured-publication,scenario-analysis,spatial-pattern}\n}\n\n","author_short":["Spinoni, J.","Naumann, G.","Vogt, J."],"key":"spinoniSpatialPatternsEuropean2015","id":"spinoniSpatialPatternsEuropean2015","bibbaseid":"spinoni-naumann-vogt-spatialpatternsofeuropeandroughtsunderamoderateemissionscenario","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015"},"keyword":["*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM","~INRMM-MiD:c-13763436","~to-add-doi-URL","climate-change","droughts","europe","featured-publication","scenario-analysis","spatial-pattern"],"downloads":0},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"https://tmpfiles.org/dl/58794/INRMM.bib","creationDate":"2020-07-02T22:41:28.407Z","downloads":0,"keywords":["*imported-from-citeulike-inrmm","~inrmm-mid:c-13763436","~to-add-doi-url","climate-change","droughts","europe","featured-publication","scenario-analysis","spatial-pattern"],"search_terms":["spatial","patterns","european","droughts","under","moderate","emission","scenario","spinoni","naumann","vogt"],"title":"Spatial Patterns of European Droughts under a Moderate Emission Scenario","year":null,"dataSources":["DXuKbcZTirdigFKPF"]}