Global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: dispersal patterns and influence of air travel. Tegally, H., Wilkinson, E., Martin, D., Moir, M., Brito, A., Giovanetti, M., Khan, K., Huber, C., Bogoch, I. I, San, J. E., Tsui, J. L., Poongavanan, J., Xavier, J. S, da S Candido , D., Romero, F., Baxter, C., Pybus, O. G, Lessells, R., Faria, N. R, Kraemer, M. U G, & de Oliveira, T. medRxiv, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press, nov, 2022.
Global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: dispersal patterns and influence of air travel [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
In many regions of the world, the Alpha, Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) co-circulated during 2020-21 and fueled waves of infections. During 2021, these variants were almost completely displaced by the Delta variant, causing a third wave of infections worldwide. This phenomenon of global viral lineage displacement was observed again in late 2021, when the Omicron variant disseminated globally. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs worldwide. We find that the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 varied substantially by VOC, and identify countries that acted as global hubs of variant dissemination, while other countries became regional contributors to the export of specific variants. We demonstrate a declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs to their global dispersal: we estimate that India contributed \textless15% of all global exports of Delta to other countries and South Africa \textless1-2% of all global Omicron exports globally. We further estimate that \textgreater80 countries had received introductions of Omicron BA.1 100 days after its inferred date of emergence, compared to just over 25 countries for the Alpha variant. This increased speed of global dissemination was associated with a rebound in air travel volume prior to Omicron emergence in addition to the higher transmissibility of Omicron relative to Alpha. Our study highlights the importance of global and regional hubs in VOC dispersal, and the speed at which highly transmissible variants disseminate through these hubs, even before their detection and characterization through genomic surveillance. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement we gratefully acknowledge all sources of funding associated with this work. In particular, KRISP and CERI is supported in part by grants from the Rockefeller Foundation (HTH 017), Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), the African Society for Laboratory Medicine, the National Institute of Health USA (U01 AI151698) for the United World Antivirus Research Network (UWARN) and the INFORM Africa project through IHVN (U54 TW012041), H3BioNet Africa (Grant # 2020 HTH 062), the South African Department of Science and Innovation (SA DSI) and the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) under the BRICS JAF #2020/049 and the World Bank (TF0B8412). M.U.G.K. acknowledges support from a Branco Weiss Fellowship, Reuben College Oxford, Google.org, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome (225288/Z/22/Z), The Rockefeller Foundation, and from the European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD (grant agreement number 874850). O.G.P. and M.U.G.K. acknowledge support from the Oxford Martin School. N.R.F. acknowledges support from Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship (204311/Z/16/Z), Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-034540) and Medical Research Council-Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award (MR/S0195/1 and FAPESP 18/14389-0). The content and findings reported herein are the sole deduction, view and responsibility of the researcher/s and do not reflect the official position and sentiments of the funding agencies. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The findings of this study are based on sequences and metadata associated with a total of XXX sequences available on GISAID up to November 19, 2022, via gisaid.org/EPI$\$_SET$\$_XXX. Custom data sources and scripts to reproduce the results of this study are publicly shared on GitHub (https://github.com/CERI-KRISP/SARS$\$_CoV$\$_2$\$_VOC$\$_dissemination). The repository contains all of the time scaled ML tree topologies, annotated tree topologies as well as custom data analysis and visualization scripts. Other datasets and pipelines used in this study are openly available and described in the Materials and Methods section.
@article{Tegally2022d,
abstract = {In many regions of the world, the Alpha, Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) co-circulated during 2020-21 and fueled waves of infections. During 2021, these variants were almost completely displaced by the Delta variant, causing a third wave of infections worldwide. This phenomenon of global viral lineage displacement was observed again in late 2021, when the Omicron variant disseminated globally. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs worldwide. We find that the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 varied substantially by VOC, and identify countries that acted as global hubs of variant dissemination, while other countries became regional contributors to the export of specific variants. We demonstrate a declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs to their global dispersal: we estimate that India contributed {\textless}15{\%} of all global exports of Delta to other countries and South Africa {\textless}1-2{\%} of all global Omicron exports globally. We further estimate that {\textgreater}80 countries had received introductions of Omicron BA.1 100 days after its inferred date of emergence, compared to just over 25 countries for the Alpha variant. This increased speed of global dissemination was associated with a rebound in air travel volume prior to Omicron emergence in addition to the higher transmissibility of Omicron relative to Alpha. Our study highlights the importance of global and regional hubs in VOC dispersal, and the speed at which highly transmissible variants disseminate through these hubs, even before their detection and characterization through genomic surveillance. {\#}{\#}{\#} Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. {\#}{\#}{\#} Funding Statement we gratefully acknowledge all sources of funding associated with this work. In particular, KRISP and CERI is supported in part by grants from the Rockefeller Foundation (HTH 017), Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), the African Society for Laboratory Medicine, the National Institute of Health USA (U01 AI151698) for the United World Antivirus Research Network (UWARN) and the INFORM Africa project through IHVN (U54 TW012041), H3BioNet Africa (Grant {\#} 2020 HTH 062), the South African Department of Science and Innovation (SA DSI) and the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) under the BRICS JAF {\#}2020/049 and the World Bank (TF0B8412). M.U.G.K. acknowledges support from a Branco Weiss Fellowship, Reuben College Oxford, Google.org, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome (225288/Z/22/Z), The Rockefeller Foundation, and from the European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD (grant agreement number 874850). O.G.P. and M.U.G.K. acknowledge support from the Oxford Martin School. N.R.F. acknowledges support from Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship (204311/Z/16/Z), Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-034540) and Medical Research Council-Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award (MR/S0195/1 and FAPESP 18/14389-0). The content and findings reported herein are the sole deduction, view and responsibility of the researcher/s and do not reflect the official position and sentiments of the funding agencies. {\#}{\#}{\#} Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The findings of this study are based on sequences and metadata associated with a total of XXX sequences available on GISAID up to November 19, 2022, via gisaid.org/EPI$\backslash${\_}SET$\backslash${\_}XXX. Custom data sources and scripts to reproduce the results of this study are publicly shared on GitHub (https://github.com/CERI-KRISP/SARS$\backslash${\_}CoV$\backslash${\_}2$\backslash${\_}VOC$\backslash${\_}dissemination). The repository contains all of the time scaled ML tree topologies, annotated tree topologies as well as custom data analysis and visualization scripts. Other datasets and pipelines used in this study are openly available and described in the Materials and Methods section.},
author = {Tegally, Houriiyah and Wilkinson, Eduan and Martin, Darren and Moir, Monika and Brito, Anderson and Giovanetti, Marta and Khan, Kamran and Huber, Carmen and Bogoch, Isaac I and San, James Emmanuel and Tsui, Joseph L-H and Poongavanan, Jenicca and Xavier, Joicymara S and {da S Candido}, Darlan and Romero, Filipe and Baxter, Cheryl and Pybus, Oliver G and Lessells, Richard and Faria, Nuno R and Kraemer, Moritz U G and de Oliveira, Tulio},
doi = {10.1101/2022.11.22.22282629},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/01462563/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Tegally et al. - 2022 - Global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern dispersal patterns and influence of air travel.pdf:pdf},
journal = {medRxiv},
keywords = {OA,fund{\_}not{\_}ack,original},
mendeley-tags = {OA,fund{\_}not{\_}ack,original},
month = {nov},
pages = {2022.11.22.22282629},
publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press},
title = {{Global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: dispersal patterns and influence of air travel}},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.22.22282629v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.22.22282629v1.abstract},
year = {2022}
}

Downloads: 0