Forecasting intermittent demand: a comparative study. Teunter, R. H. & Duncan, L. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60(3):321--329, 2009. ![Forecasting intermittent demand: a comparative study [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Methods for forecasting intermittent demand are compared using a large data set from the UK Royal Air Force. Several important results are found. First, we show that the traditional per period forecast error measures are not appropriate for intermittent demand, even though they are consistently used in the literature. Second, by comparing the ability to approximate target service levels and stock holding implications, we show that Croston's method (and a variant) and Bootstrapping clearly outperform Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing. Third, we show that the performance of Croston and Bootstrapping can be significantly improved by taking into account that an order in a period is triggered by a demand in that period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of the Operational Research Society is the property of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
@article{teunter_forecasting_2009,
title = {Forecasting intermittent demand: a comparative study},
volume = {60},
issn = {01605682},
shorttitle = {Forecasting intermittent demand: a comparative study},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=36655274&site=ehost-live},
doi = {10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602569},
abstract = {Methods for forecasting intermittent demand are compared using a large data set from the UK Royal Air Force. Several important results are found. First, we show that the traditional per period forecast error measures are not appropriate for intermittent demand, even though they are consistently used in the literature. Second, by comparing the ability to approximate target service levels and stock holding implications, we show that Croston's method (and a variant) and Bootstrapping clearly outperform Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing. Third, we show that the performance of Croston and Bootstrapping can be significantly improved by taking into account that an order in a period is triggered by a demand in that period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of the Operational Research Society is the property of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)},
number = {3},
journal = {Journal of the Operational Research Society},
author = {Teunter, R. H. and Duncan, L.},
year = {2009},
keywords = {AIR forces, BUSINESS forecasting, DEMAND (Economic theory), ERRORS, Forecasting, GREAT Britain, GREAT Britain. Royal Air Force, Inventory, intermittent demand},
pages = {321--329}
}
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