Extinction Risk from Climate Change. Thomas, C. D.; Cameron, A.; Green, R. E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L. J.; Collingham, Y. C.; Erasmus, B. F. N.; de Siqueira, M. F.; Grainger, A.; Hannah, L.; Hughes, L.; Huntley, B.; van Jaarsveld, A. S.; Midgley, G. F.; Miles, L.; Ortega-Huerta, M. A.; Townsend Peterson, A.; Phillips, O. L.; and Williams, S. E. 427(6970):145–148.
Extinction Risk from Climate Change [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Climate change over the past 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20\,% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37\,% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18%) than mid-range (24%) and maximum-change (35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
@article{thomasExtinctionRiskClimate2004,
  title = {Extinction Risk from Climate Change},
  author = {Thomas, Chris D. and Cameron, Alison and Green, Rhys E. and Bakkenes, Michel and Beaumont, Linda J. and Collingham, Yvonne C. and Erasmus, Barend F. N. and de Siqueira, Marinez F. and Grainger, Alan and Hannah, Lee and Hughes, Lesley and Huntley, Brian and van Jaarsveld, Albert S. and Midgley, Guy F. and Miles, Lera and Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A. and Townsend Peterson, A. and Phillips, Oliver L. and Williams, Stephen E.},
  date = {2004-01},
  journaltitle = {Nature},
  volume = {427},
  pages = {145--148},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature02121},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121},
  abstract = {Climate change over the past 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20\,\% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37\,\% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18\%) than mid-range (24\%) and maximum-change (35\%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-165308,climate-change,climate-projections,communicating-uncertainty,fragmentation,invasive-species,irreversibility,species-distribution,species-extinction},
  number = {6970},
  options = {useprefix=true}
}
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