The ghost of infections past: Accounting for heterogeneity in individual infection history improves accuracy in epidemic forecasting. Vale, P. F., Saad-Roy, C. M., & Boots, M. PLOS Biology, 23(8):e3003311, August, 2025. Publisher: Public Library of Science![The ghost of infections past: Accounting for heterogeneity in individual infection history improves accuracy in epidemic forecasting [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex 5 downloads Variation in infection history is an important but often underappreciated driver of individual variability in responses to infections. Such individual heterogeneity in immune responses, stemming from variable previous exposure to pathogens, subsequently influences epidemiological outcomes. By comparing research on innate immune priming in invertebrates, which lack adaptive immune memory but demonstrate enhanced responses to re-infections, to patterns seen in vertebrates, this Essay reveals broad implications for disease dynamics. Insights from mathematical modelling and experimental data highlight the critical need to integrate evolutionary disease ecology into public health initiatives to better predict and manage infectious diseases.
@article{vale_ghost_2025,
title = {The ghost of infections past: {Accounting} for heterogeneity in individual infection history improves accuracy in epidemic forecasting},
volume = {23},
copyright = {All rights reserved},
issn = {1545-7885},
shorttitle = {The ghost of infections past},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3003311},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.3003311},
abstract = {Variation in infection history is an important but often underappreciated driver of individual variability in responses to infections. Such individual heterogeneity in immune responses, stemming from variable previous exposure to pathogens, subsequently influences epidemiological outcomes. By comparing research on innate immune priming in invertebrates, which lack adaptive immune memory but demonstrate enhanced responses to re-infections, to patterns seen in vertebrates, this Essay reveals broad implications for disease dynamics. Insights from mathematical modelling and experimental data highlight the critical need to integrate evolutionary disease ecology into public health initiatives to better predict and manage infectious diseases.},
language = {en},
number = {8},
urldate = {2025-08-11},
journal = {PLOS Biology},
author = {Vale, Pedro F. and Saad-Roy, Chadi M. and Boots, Mike},
month = aug,
year = {2025},
note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science},
keywords = {Epidemiology, Genetic epidemiology, Immune response, Infectious disease epidemiology, Invertebrates, Pathogens, Population dynamics, Vertebrates},
pages = {e3003311},
}
Downloads: 5
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