@article{
 title = {Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe},
 type = {article},
 year = {2010},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Europe,Potential predictability Á,Seasonal forecasting Á,Soil moisture initialization Á},
 id = {764bd9f3-f74c-3956-95b6-033a0ae20683},
 created = {2015-12-23T14:16:26.000Z},
 file_attached = {true},
 profile_id = {feefc994-8ca3-3894-85b7-6a253344aebe},
 group_id = {bbe77cbc-7d0d-3a6b-a71b-f666abca3e24},
 last_modified = {2015-12-23T14:16:26.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {false},
 confirmed = {false},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {The Second Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE2) is designed to explore the improvement of forecast skill of summertime temperature and precipitation up to 8 weeks ahead by using realistic soil moisture initialization. For the European continent, we show in this study that for temperature the skill does indeed increase up to 6 weeks, but areas with (statistically signifi-cant) lower skill also exist at longer lead times. The skill improvement is smaller than shown earlier for the US, partly because of a lower potential predictability of the European climate at seasonal time scales. Selection of extreme soil moisture conditions or a subset of models with similar initial soil moisture conditions does improve the forecast skill, and sporadic positive effects are also demonstrated for precipi-tation. Using realistic initial soil moisture data increases the interannual variability of temperature compared to the control simulations in the South-Central European area at longer lead times. This leads to better temperature forecasts in a remote area in Western Europe. However, the covered range of forecast dates (1986–1995) is too short to isolate a clear physical mechanism for this remote correlation.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Van Den Hurk, Bart and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Koster, Randal D and Seneviratne, Sonia I and Helio, @bullet and Jr, Camargo}
}

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