ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and Its Impacts - Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project. van der Linden , P. & Mitchell, J. F. B. Technical Report Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, 2009.
abstract   bibtex   
The climate projections generated in ENSEMBLES describe the world and Europe experiencing tangible, measurable climate change. As the century progresses the projected climate moves increasingly farther away from its current state, so that by 2100 the climate of Europe will be very different from today. Even under a mitigation scenario, the climate of Europe during the next few decades is still calculated to depart significantly from that of the present. [] ENSEMBLES results show how the impacts resulting from these climate changes, including changes in climate mean, variability and extremes, affect all the systems and sectors studied. Adverse impacts increase in magnitude through time often exceeding critical system thresholds. Examples include impacts on health, water resources, agriculture, energy supply and demand, and fire and pest risks to forests. [] Many of these new results reinforce the conclusions of earlier studies of climate change projections and impacts. What is new about the ENSEMBLES results is that they describe in far greater detail how the climate is expected to change under standard scenarios of future emissions. They also include, for the first time, multi-model climate projections for a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario leading to emissions and temperature stabilisation in line with European policy aims. The results have been used as a basis for a set of new tools and datasets for informing potential users about present and future climate, and have been linked to new techniques for assessing the impacts of climate change in Europe in terms of risk. [] This 'added value' in the ENSEMBLES results comes from using improved models, developing new and better techniques to analyse and disseminate projections of climate change and their uncertainties, and demonstrating how this information can be applied in policy-relevant impact assessments. The improvements for example, add skill to seasonal forecasting while multi-decadal models, for the first time, have produced probabilistic climate change projections for Europe.
@techreport{vanderlindenENSEMBLESClimateChange2009,
  title = {{{ENSEMBLES}}: {{Climate Change}} and Its {{Impacts}} - {{Summary}} of Research and Results from the {{ENSEMBLES}} Project},
  author = {{van der Linden}, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B.},
  year = {2009},
  pages = {160},
  address = {{Exeter, United Kingdom}},
  institution = {{Met Office Hadley Centre}},
  abstract = {The climate projections generated in ENSEMBLES describe the world and Europe experiencing tangible, measurable climate change. As the century progresses the projected climate moves increasingly farther away from its current state, so that by 2100 the climate of Europe will be very different from today. Even under a mitigation scenario, the climate of Europe during the next few decades is still calculated to depart significantly from that of the present.

[] ENSEMBLES results show how the impacts resulting from these climate changes, including changes in climate mean, variability and extremes, affect all the systems and sectors studied. Adverse impacts increase in magnitude through time often exceeding critical system thresholds. Examples include impacts on health, water resources, agriculture, energy supply and demand, and fire and pest risks to forests.

[] Many of these new results reinforce the conclusions of earlier studies of climate change projections and impacts. What is new about the ENSEMBLES results is that they describe in far greater detail how the climate is expected to change under standard scenarios of future emissions. They also include, for the first time, multi-model climate projections for a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario leading to emissions and temperature stabilisation in line with European policy aims. The results have been used as a basis for a set of new tools and datasets for informing potential users about present and future climate, and have been linked to new techniques for assessing the impacts of climate change in Europe in terms of risk.

[] This 'added value' in the ENSEMBLES results comes from using improved models, developing new and better techniques to analyse and disseminate projections of climate change and their uncertainties, and demonstrating how this information can be applied in policy-relevant impact assessments. The improvements for example, add skill to seasonal forecasting while multi-decadal models, for the first time, have produced probabilistic climate change projections for Europe.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257308,climate-change,climate-projections,europe},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14257308}
}

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