Valuing large-scale solar photovoltaics in future electricity generation portfolios and its implications for energy and climate policies. Vithayasrichareon, P. & MacGill, I. F. IET Renewable Power Generation, 10(1):79–87, 2016. doi abstract bibtex This study examines the potential role of large-scale photovoltaics (PV) generation in addressing the economic, energy security and environmental challenges facing the electricity industry. A Monte-Carlo-based generation portfolio modelling tool is employed to examine the value and impacts of different PV penetrations in future electricity generation portfolios under future uncertainty and multiple industry objectives of minimising expected future costs, cost uncertainty and CO2 emissions. The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) facing highly uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon price, plant capital costs and electricity demand was used as a case study. Hourly PV generations across diverse locations were simulated for different penetration levels. Modelling results show that, with relatively modest carbon prices, increased PV penetration leads to not only reductions in cost uncertainties and greenhouse gas emissions, but also the overall industry generation costs. This would greatly enhance the value and thus encourage investment in large-scale solar PV, even when the transmission cost estimates were included. The value of PV generation in future generation portfolios is also influenced by the mix of generation technologies. The findings from this study can assist in energy and climate policy decision making in the electricity industry, particularly with regard to large-scale PV generation and carbon pricing.
@article{vithayasrichareon_valuing_2016,
title = {Valuing large-scale solar photovoltaics in future electricity generation portfolios and its implications for energy and climate policies},
volume = {10},
issn = {1752-1416},
doi = {10.1049/iet-rpg.2015.0051},
abstract = {This study examines the potential role of large-scale photovoltaics (PV) generation in addressing the economic, energy security and environmental challenges facing the electricity industry. A Monte-Carlo-based generation portfolio modelling tool is employed to examine the value and impacts of different PV penetrations in future electricity generation portfolios under future uncertainty and multiple industry objectives of minimising expected future costs, cost uncertainty and CO2 emissions. The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) facing highly uncertain future fossil-fuel prices, carbon price, plant capital costs and electricity demand was used as a case study. Hourly PV generations across diverse locations were simulated for different penetration levels. Modelling results show that, with relatively modest carbon prices, increased PV penetration leads to not only reductions in cost uncertainties and greenhouse gas emissions, but also the overall industry generation costs. This would greatly enhance the value and thus encourage investment in large-scale solar PV, even when the transmission cost estimates were included. The value of PV generation in future generation portfolios is also influenced by the mix of generation technologies. The findings from this study can assist in energy and climate policy decision making in the electricity industry, particularly with regard to large-scale PV generation and carbon pricing.},
number = {1},
journal = {IET Renewable Power Generation},
author = {Vithayasrichareon, P. and MacGill, I. F.},
year = {2016},
keywords = {CO2 emission, Monte Carlo generation portfolio modelling, Monte Carlo methods, PV penetration, air pollution control, carbon price, climate policy decision making, cost reduction, cost uncertainty, demand side management, electricity demand, electricity industry, energy policy decision making, energy security, environmental challenges, environmental economics, expected future cost, future electricity generation portfolio, industry generation cost, photovoltaic power systems, plant capital cost, power generation economics, power markets, pricing, solar photovoltaic generation, solar power stations, transmission cost estimation, uncertain future fossil fuel cost, uncertain future fossil fuel price},
pages = {79--87}
}
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