@article{RN503,
   author = {Voorbrood, V. M. I. and Bohnen, A. M. and Bosman, A. P. and Rijnbeek, P. R. and Rizopoulos, D. and Bindels, P. J. E.},
   title = {Underestimation of Cardiovascular Risk by the SCORE2 Model in Primary Care: A Call for Recalibration},
   journal = {Eur J Prev Cardiol},
   note = {2047-4881
Voorbrood, V M I
Orcid: 0000-0002-8636-2533
Bohnen, A M
Orcid: 0000-0002-6645-9100
Bosman, A P
Orcid: 0009-0001-4334-7392
Rijnbeek, P R
Orcid: 0000-0003-0621-1979
Rizopoulos, D
Orcid: 0000-0001-9397-0900
Bindels, P J E
Orcid: 0000-0001-5941-4820
Journal Article
England
2025/04/27
Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2025 Apr 27:zwaf253. doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf253.},
   abstract = {BACKGROUND: The SCORE2 model is a derived risk prediction model that estimates the CVE risk. Originally developed with population-based cohort data, this model is also intended to be used in routine primary care to calculate the risk of first-onset CVE and guide treatment decisions. AIM: In this study, we followed adult patients in the Netherlands who visited their general practitioner (GP) and underwent a CVE risk assessment at their GP office. The aim was to relate the results of the SCORE2 model to the observed risk of a first CVE during follow-up. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 205,548 patients, analyzing factors including age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, total and HDL cholesterol, and mean systolic blood pressure. The performance of the SCORE2 model was assessed using observed-to-expected (O/E) risk ratios, calibration plots, and C-statistics. Analyses were stratified by sex, age groups (< 50 and ≥ 50 years), and low and moderate risk country categories. MAIN RESULTS: Results indicated a mean observed 10-year risk of 10.1%, notably higher than the model-predicted risk of 6.2%. The O/E ratio in females and men was 1.54 and 1.68 respectively.The mean observed 10-year CVE was in the age groups < 50 years and ≥ 50 years 6.9% and 11%, respectively. (O/E ratio: 1.78 vs. 1.62).Consequently, approximately 35% of patients potentially missed preventive treatments due to SCORE2's underestimation. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the SCORE2 model may underestimate CVE risk in primary care, highlighting the need for calibration in this setting.
Overview of the Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Background: The SCORE2 model is used by doctors to predict the risk of cardiovascular events (such as heart attacks and strokes) over the next 10 years. It considers factors like age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, and cholesterol levels. PURPOSE: This study looked at how well the SCORE2 model works for patients visiting their general practitioner (GP) for a heart health check. The researchers wanted to see if the predicted risks matched the actual risks observed over time. METHODS: The study included adults aged 40-69 in the Netherlands who had their first heart health check with their GP. The researchers used the SCORE2 model to estimate each person's risk and then tracked their health during follow-up to see who had a cardiovascular event. RESULTS: The study included 205,548 patients with an average age of 58. The SCORE2 model predicted a 6.2% risk of heart attacks or strokes over 10 years, but the actual observed risk was higher at 10.1%. This means the model underestimated the risk for many patients. CONCLUSION: The SCORE2 model underestimates the risk of heart attacks and strokes in this selected group of patients. As a result, since treatment is based on the estimated risk, many patients might not receive the treatment they need based on this model alone.
eng},
   keywords = {Primary Prevention
Risk of Cardiovascular Disease
Score2},
   ISSN = {2047-4873},
   DOI = {10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf253},
   year = {2025},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

{"_id":"vBpBbPqe9aSNZ4MBq","bibbaseid":"voorbrood-bohnen-bosman-rijnbeek-rizopoulos-bindels-underestimationofcardiovascularriskbythescore2modelinprimarycareacallforrecalibration-2025","author_short":["Voorbrood, V. M. I.","Bohnen, A. M.","Bosman, A. P.","Rijnbeek, P. R.","Rizopoulos, D.","Bindels, P. J. E."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"Journal Article","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Voorbrood"],"firstnames":["V.","M.","I."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Bohnen"],"firstnames":["A.","M."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Bosman"],"firstnames":["A.","P."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Rijnbeek"],"firstnames":["P.","R."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Rizopoulos"],"firstnames":["D."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Bindels"],"firstnames":["P.","J.","E."],"suffixes":[]}],"title":"Underestimation of Cardiovascular Risk by the SCORE2 Model in Primary Care: A Call for Recalibration","journal":"Eur J Prev Cardiol","note":"2047-4881 Voorbrood, V M I Orcid: 0000-0002-8636-2533 Bohnen, A M Orcid: 0000-0002-6645-9100 Bosman, A P Orcid: 0009-0001-4334-7392 Rijnbeek, P R Orcid: 0000-0003-0621-1979 Rizopoulos, D Orcid: 0000-0001-9397-0900 Bindels, P J E Orcid: 0000-0001-5941-4820 Journal Article England 2025/04/27 Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2025 Apr 27:zwaf253. doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf253.","abstract":"BACKGROUND: The SCORE2 model is a derived risk prediction model that estimates the CVE risk. Originally developed with population-based cohort data, this model is also intended to be used in routine primary care to calculate the risk of first-onset CVE and guide treatment decisions. AIM: In this study, we followed adult patients in the Netherlands who visited their general practitioner (GP) and underwent a CVE risk assessment at their GP office. The aim was to relate the results of the SCORE2 model to the observed risk of a first CVE during follow-up. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 205,548 patients, analyzing factors including age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, total and HDL cholesterol, and mean systolic blood pressure. The performance of the SCORE2 model was assessed using observed-to-expected (O/E) risk ratios, calibration plots, and C-statistics. Analyses were stratified by sex, age groups (< 50 and ≥ 50 years), and low and moderate risk country categories. MAIN RESULTS: Results indicated a mean observed 10-year risk of 10.1%, notably higher than the model-predicted risk of 6.2%. The O/E ratio in females and men was 1.54 and 1.68 respectively.The mean observed 10-year CVE was in the age groups < 50 years and ≥ 50 years 6.9% and 11%, respectively. (O/E ratio: 1.78 vs. 1.62).Consequently, approximately 35% of patients potentially missed preventive treatments due to SCORE2's underestimation. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the SCORE2 model may underestimate CVE risk in primary care, highlighting the need for calibration in this setting. Overview of the Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Background: The SCORE2 model is used by doctors to predict the risk of cardiovascular events (such as heart attacks and strokes) over the next 10 years. It considers factors like age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, and cholesterol levels. PURPOSE: This study looked at how well the SCORE2 model works for patients visiting their general practitioner (GP) for a heart health check. The researchers wanted to see if the predicted risks matched the actual risks observed over time. METHODS: The study included adults aged 40-69 in the Netherlands who had their first heart health check with their GP. The researchers used the SCORE2 model to estimate each person's risk and then tracked their health during follow-up to see who had a cardiovascular event. RESULTS: The study included 205,548 patients with an average age of 58. The SCORE2 model predicted a 6.2% risk of heart attacks or strokes over 10 years, but the actual observed risk was higher at 10.1%. This means the model underestimated the risk for many patients. CONCLUSION: The SCORE2 model underestimates the risk of heart attacks and strokes in this selected group of patients. As a result, since treatment is based on the estimated risk, many patients might not receive the treatment they need based on this model alone. eng","keywords":"Primary Prevention Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Score2","issn":"2047-4873","doi":"10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf253","year":"2025","bibtex":"@article{RN503,\r\n author = {Voorbrood, V. M. I. and Bohnen, A. M. and Bosman, A. P. and Rijnbeek, P. R. and Rizopoulos, D. and Bindels, P. J. E.},\r\n title = {Underestimation of Cardiovascular Risk by the SCORE2 Model in Primary Care: A Call for Recalibration},\r\n journal = {Eur J Prev Cardiol},\r\n note = {2047-4881\r\nVoorbrood, V M I\r\nOrcid: 0000-0002-8636-2533\r\nBohnen, A M\r\nOrcid: 0000-0002-6645-9100\r\nBosman, A P\r\nOrcid: 0009-0001-4334-7392\r\nRijnbeek, P R\r\nOrcid: 0000-0003-0621-1979\r\nRizopoulos, D\r\nOrcid: 0000-0001-9397-0900\r\nBindels, P J E\r\nOrcid: 0000-0001-5941-4820\r\nJournal Article\r\nEngland\r\n2025/04/27\r\nEur J Prev Cardiol. 2025 Apr 27:zwaf253. doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf253.},\r\n abstract = {BACKGROUND: The SCORE2 model is a derived risk prediction model that estimates the CVE risk. Originally developed with population-based cohort data, this model is also intended to be used in routine primary care to calculate the risk of first-onset CVE and guide treatment decisions. AIM: In this study, we followed adult patients in the Netherlands who visited their general practitioner (GP) and underwent a CVE risk assessment at their GP office. The aim was to relate the results of the SCORE2 model to the observed risk of a first CVE during follow-up. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 205,548 patients, analyzing factors including age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, total and HDL cholesterol, and mean systolic blood pressure. The performance of the SCORE2 model was assessed using observed-to-expected (O/E) risk ratios, calibration plots, and C-statistics. Analyses were stratified by sex, age groups (< 50 and ≥ 50 years), and low and moderate risk country categories. MAIN RESULTS: Results indicated a mean observed 10-year risk of 10.1%, notably higher than the model-predicted risk of 6.2%. The O/E ratio in females and men was 1.54 and 1.68 respectively.The mean observed 10-year CVE was in the age groups < 50 years and ≥ 50 years 6.9% and 11%, respectively. (O/E ratio: 1.78 vs. 1.62).Consequently, approximately 35% of patients potentially missed preventive treatments due to SCORE2's underestimation. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the SCORE2 model may underestimate CVE risk in primary care, highlighting the need for calibration in this setting.\r\nOverview of the Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Background: The SCORE2 model is used by doctors to predict the risk of cardiovascular events (such as heart attacks and strokes) over the next 10 years. It considers factors like age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, and cholesterol levels. PURPOSE: This study looked at how well the SCORE2 model works for patients visiting their general practitioner (GP) for a heart health check. The researchers wanted to see if the predicted risks matched the actual risks observed over time. METHODS: The study included adults aged 40-69 in the Netherlands who had their first heart health check with their GP. The researchers used the SCORE2 model to estimate each person's risk and then tracked their health during follow-up to see who had a cardiovascular event. RESULTS: The study included 205,548 patients with an average age of 58. The SCORE2 model predicted a 6.2% risk of heart attacks or strokes over 10 years, but the actual observed risk was higher at 10.1%. This means the model underestimated the risk for many patients. CONCLUSION: The SCORE2 model underestimates the risk of heart attacks and strokes in this selected group of patients. As a result, since treatment is based on the estimated risk, many patients might not receive the treatment they need based on this model alone.\r\neng},\r\n keywords = {Primary Prevention\r\nRisk of Cardiovascular Disease\r\nScore2},\r\n ISSN = {2047-4873},\r\n DOI = {10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf253},\r\n year = {2025},\r\n type = {Journal Article}\r\n}\r\n\r\n","author_short":["Voorbrood, V. M. I.","Bohnen, A. M.","Bosman, A. P.","Rijnbeek, P. R.","Rizopoulos, D.","Bindels, P. J. E."],"key":"RN503","id":"RN503","bibbaseid":"voorbrood-bohnen-bosman-rijnbeek-rizopoulos-bindels-underestimationofcardiovascularriskbythescore2modelinprimarycareacallforrecalibration-2025","role":"author","urls":{},"keyword":["Primary Prevention Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Score2"],"metadata":{"authorlinks":{}},"html":""},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"https://bibbase.org/network/files/qwipow2DJsAxqNp83","dataSources":["PcZMFHooKwpboi2he","jZMXEeHTfokmisJDv"],"keywords":["primary prevention risk of cardiovascular disease score2"],"search_terms":["underestimation","cardiovascular","risk","score2","model","primary","care","call","recalibration","voorbrood","bohnen","bosman","rijnbeek","rizopoulos","bindels"],"title":"Underestimation of Cardiovascular Risk by the SCORE2 Model in Primary Care: A Call for Recalibration","year":2025}