@article{ ISI:000293097200026,
Author = {Voss, Ruediger and Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald and Quaas, Martin F. and
   Schmidt, Jorn O. and Tahvonen, Olli},
Title = {{Temperature change and Baltic sprat: from observations to
   ecological-economic modelling}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2011}},
Volume = {{68}},
Number = {{6}},
Pages = {{1244-1256}},
Month = {{JUL}},
Abstract = {{Temperature effects on Baltic sprat are many and include both direct and
   indirect effects. Increasing temperature is thought to increase the
   survival of all early life stages, resulting in increased recruitment
   success. We quantified the spatially resolved temperature trend for
   major spawning grounds and depth layers being most relevant for sprat
   eggs and larvae, using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for
   1979-2005. Results confirmed an underlying positive temperature trend.
   Next, we tested these time-series as new explanatory variables in an
   existing temperature-dependent recruitment function and applied these
   recruitment predictions in an age-structured ecological economic
   optimization model, maximizing for profit. Economic optimal solutions
   depended upon variability in temperature trajectories. Under
   climate-change scenarios, mean optimal fishing mortality and related
   yields and profits increased. The extent of the increase was limited by
   the general shape of the stock recruitment model and the assumption of
   density-dependence. This highlights the need to formulate better
   environmentally sensitive stock recruitment models. Under the current
   knowledge of Baltic sprat recruitment, the tested climate-change
   scenarios would result in a change in management targets. However, to
   serve as a quantitative management advice tool, models will have to
   address the above-mentioned concerns.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Voss, R (Reprint Author), Univ Kiel, Dept Econ, Wilhelm Seelig Pl 1, D-24178 Kiel, Germany.
   Voss, Ruediger; Quaas, Martin F.; Schmidt, Jorn O., Univ Kiel, Dept Econ, D-24178 Kiel, Germany.
   Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald, Leibniz Inst Marine Sci, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
   Tahvonen, Olli, Univ Helsinki, Dept Forest Sci, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsr063}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
Keywords = {{climate change; ecological-economic model; management; species
   interaction}},
Keywords-Plus = {{MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; CLUPEA-HARENGUS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SEA;
   VARIABILITY; RECRUITMENT; SURVIVAL; LARVAL; COD; FISHERIES}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{voss@economics.uni-kiel.de}},
ResearcherID-Numbers = {{Schmidt, Jorn/A-7714-2008
   Voss, Rudi/A-6113-2011
   Quaas, Martin/C-4220-2012}},
ORCID-Numbers = {{Schmidt, Jorn/0000-0002-4420-6532
   Quaas, Martin/0000-0003-0812-8829}},
Funding-Acknowledgement = {{Cluster of Excellence ``Future Ocean{''} of Kiel University; European
   Communities {[}244966]}},
Funding-Text = {{We thank two anonymous reviewers and especially Anna Gardmark for
   valuable comments on a first draft, which considerably improved the
   manuscript. The study was carried out with financial support from the
   Cluster of Excellence ``Future Ocean{''} of Kiel University and from the
   European Communities as a contribution to the FP7 Specific Targeted
   Research Project 244966, Forage Fish Interactions (FACTS). This article
   does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission.}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{62}},
Times-Cited = {{14}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{2}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{12}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{797BI}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000293097200026}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}

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Increasing temperature is thought to increase the survival of all early life stages, resulting in increased recruitment success. We quantified the spatially resolved temperature trend for major spawning grounds and depth layers being most relevant for sprat eggs and larvae, using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for 1979-2005. Results confirmed an underlying positive temperature trend. Next, we tested these time-series as new explanatory variables in an existing temperature-dependent recruitment function and applied these recruitment predictions in an age-structured ecological economic optimization model, maximizing for profit. Economic optimal solutions depended upon variability in temperature trajectories. Under climate-change scenarios, mean optimal fishing mortality and related yields and profits increased. The extent of the increase was limited by the general shape of the stock recruitment model and the assumption of density-dependence. This highlights the need to formulate better environmentally sensitive stock recruitment models. Under the current knowledge of Baltic sprat recruitment, the tested climate-change scenarios would result in a change in management targets. However, to serve as a quantitative management advice tool, models will have to address the above-mentioned concerns.","publisher":"OXFORD UNIV PRESS","address":"GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND","language":"English","affiliation":"Voss, R (Reprint Author), Univ Kiel, Dept Econ, Wilhelm Seelig Pl 1, D-24178 Kiel, Germany. Voss, Ruediger; Quaas, Martin F.; Schmidt, Jorn O., Univ Kiel, Dept Econ, D-24178 Kiel, Germany. Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald, Leibniz Inst Marine Sci, D-24105 Kiel, Germany. 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Results confirmed an underlying positive temperature trend.\n Next, we tested these time-series as new explanatory variables in an\n existing temperature-dependent recruitment function and applied these\n recruitment predictions in an age-structured ecological economic\n optimization model, maximizing for profit. Economic optimal solutions\n depended upon variability in temperature trajectories. Under\n climate-change scenarios, mean optimal fishing mortality and related\n yields and profits increased. The extent of the increase was limited by\n the general shape of the stock recruitment model and the assumption of\n density-dependence. This highlights the need to formulate better\n environmentally sensitive stock recruitment models. Under the current\n knowledge of Baltic sprat recruitment, the tested climate-change\n scenarios would result in a change in management targets. However, to\n serve as a quantitative management advice tool, models will have to\n address the above-mentioned concerns.}},\nPublisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},\nAddress = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},\nType = {{Article}},\nLanguage = {{English}},\nAffiliation = {{Voss, R (Reprint Author), Univ Kiel, Dept Econ, Wilhelm Seelig Pl 1, D-24178 Kiel, Germany.\n Voss, Ruediger; Quaas, Martin F.; Schmidt, Jorn O., Univ Kiel, Dept Econ, D-24178 Kiel, Germany.\n Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald, Leibniz Inst Marine Sci, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.\n Tahvonen, Olli, Univ Helsinki, Dept Forest Sci, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland.}},\nDOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsr063}},\nISSN = {{1054-3139}},\nKeywords = {{climate change; ecological-economic model; management; species\n interaction}},\nKeywords-Plus = {{MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; CLUPEA-HARENGUS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SEA;\n VARIABILITY; RECRUITMENT; SURVIVAL; LARVAL; COD; FISHERIES}},\nResearch-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \\& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},\nWeb-of-Science-Categories = {{Fisheries; Marine \\& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},\nAuthor-Email = {{voss@economics.uni-kiel.de}},\nResearcherID-Numbers = {{Schmidt, Jorn/A-7714-2008\n Voss, Rudi/A-6113-2011\n Quaas, Martin/C-4220-2012}},\nORCID-Numbers = {{Schmidt, Jorn/0000-0002-4420-6532\n Quaas, Martin/0000-0003-0812-8829}},\nFunding-Acknowledgement = {{Cluster of Excellence ``Future Ocean{''} of Kiel University; European\n Communities {[}244966]}},\nFunding-Text = {{We thank two anonymous reviewers and especially Anna Gardmark for\n valuable comments on a first draft, which considerably improved the\n manuscript. 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